The Chamber of Deputies is forecasting an abstention rate of between 65 and 69 percent in the July elections. I believe it was just under 60 percent for the 2003 midterms, which suggests a worrying trend toward apathy. The committee responsible for the forecast said that 62 percent of the citizens surveyed think that the elections will be only somewhat or not at all trustworthy, while another 58 percent said that there will likely be post-electoral conflict. Only 33 percent said that the elections should be seen as an evaluation of the respective parties' labor over the past three years.
That last point is striking. The notoriously lame "please vote" ads from the IFE have are about sixteen times more earnest than any Mexican is in real life. (Here's a video with three commercials, the second being the best example of what I'm talking about.) As such, they are fodder for jokes. What the IFE should do is capitalize on the spite toward political parties: "Is your deputy a fat slob who stole $10,000 pesos? Vote his party out of office! Did your deputy encourage supporters to take over the city's main drag to protest oil reform? Send her party packing! Does your deputy protect abusive priests? ¡Mándale a la chingada!
Now seems like a good time to revisit a post regarding two analysts who defend abstention as a legitimate form of democratic participation.
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