Monday, May 18, 2009

Economic Optimism

Yesterday, Calderón sounded an optimistic economic note in saying that the worst days of the economic crisis would soon be definitively in the past. On Friday, he mentioned the "encouraging signs" in the US economy, and added that during the second half of 2009 or at the very latest at the beginning of 2010, the Mexican economy would begin to rebound.

Not surprisingly, the tone is more upbeat than recent news would seem to warrant, and the forecast more certain coming from Calderón's mouth than from those of independent analysts. It's surely not easy for a leader having to walk the fine line between instilling much-needed confidence in the economy and willfully ignoring reality, and I didn't see anything factually suspect in the snippets of Calderón's remarks given, but you wonder at what point people are going to stop believing Calderón when his comments seem to be so directly at odds with the economic climate. I'm not suggesting we're anywhere near that point just yet, but if the third quarter of 2009 looks a lot like the first (which is to say, if the recovery doesn't start until 2010), is Calderón going to be singing the same song?

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