Post on Mexico

Here's the intro to today's editorial: 

MANY COUNTRIES get into trouble because of their own failings -- bad government is the most common cause. But Mexico lately has become an example of how a nation with a relatively good democratic government can plunge into crisis because of forces outside its control. President Felipe Calderón, who took office in December 2006, first faced an epidemic of drug trafficking and related violence brought about largely by the demand for drugs in, and supply of assault weapons from, the United States. Then a financial crisis born on Wall Street spilled over into Mexico's economy. Now the appearance of a new strain of swine flu and fears of a global pandemic have dealt another blow to the country, which has all but shut down in an effort to contain the bug.

Tomorrow I have a piece that makes virtually the exact same point, so naturally I am sympathetic (and also concerned that someone from the Post has remote access to my computer). 

Of course, a Post editorial about Latin America was unlikely to proceed without flaws. Hence, the finale:

Mr. Calderón just barely won the 2006 presidential election over a leftist populist candidate backed by Venezuela's Hugo Chávez. Mr. Chávez's fondest ambition remains adding Mexico to his anti-American bloc. That the United States is failing to fully support a friendly, democratic and capable Mexican government is not only shortsighted; it is dangerous.

Philosophically, this gives Chávez was too much power. Mexico is far more important to the US in every conceivable way than Venezuela, and it is a great folly to view Mexico as nothing more than a theatre of operations in the battle with Chávez. 

Practically, this is silly, for two big reasons. First of all, a president from Mexico's extreme left (say, AMLO) would likely be crustier to the US than Calderón, but he would not be a Chávista, which was pretty clear during AMLO's campaign. Reality simply wouldn't let him. Furthermore, the danger (if that's the word you want to use) of the Mexican left taking over Mexico's government is presently quite small. The PRD, led by the moderate Jesús Ortega, is presently polling at less than 20 percent ahead of the July elections. Marcelo Ebrard seems like a potentially formidable candidate in 2012, but as long as the PRD is polling at 15 or 16 percent, he's got a lot of work to do. In any event, Ebrard may be a leftist, but he has given us no reason to suspect that there's any virulent strand of anti-Americanism coursing through his blood. Worrying that he (or other candidates of the left) might drift into Chávez's camp and consequently giving him a cold shoulder will, of course, only ensure that when/if a leftist candidate wins the Mexican presidency, he or she will be more suspicious of American motives than necessary.