Friday, September 2, 2011

One Other Point from that Mitofsky Poll

When not given an option and asked to spontaneously choose their preferred candidate for the presidency, just 3 percent of the survey named Ebrard. How did that happen? He has (more or less) successfully governed some 8 percent of the electorate for five years, he has far fewer negatives than many of his rivals, he performed very well in probably the scariest crisis in recent Mexican history (swine flu), he has been one of the three most recognized public officials for almost five years, and he has been transparent about his ambitions since 2008 or so. The electoral process isn't over with and this is just one poll, but he looks to be moving in the wrong direction, and has enormous obstacles in front of him, despite all the advantages listed above. So, seriously, how did this happen? Aguachile?


Jan-Albert Hootsen said...

Mexico City residents have become increasingly negative towards Ebrard due to his authoritarian management of infrastructural projects. Take the Supervia: Ebrard decided to start cutting down trees before he even had a licence. Commuters are irritated by traffic jams caused by the new Metrobus lines. Right now, very few people I speak to have a really positive view of Ebrard. Some of the complaints are that he is too busy acting like a statesman and spends too little time attending daily concerns of the people in his city.

On a more national level, Ebrard has been scolded by some of the more moderate perredistas over his 'too cordial' relations with Calderon's 'illegitimate government'.

I have no idea how much this quantitatively influences his image nationwide, but the 8% electorate in Mexico City isn't quite as satisfied as it could or should be with Ebrard...

pc said...

There's no doubt all of that plays a big role, but it's hard to explain 3 percent. I mean that's a really low number for someone who has invested as much as he has. But then again if you run against your base to a certain extent (i.e. the normalization of relations with Calderon), and you don't do well with your governing constituency, where else are the votes supposed to come from? But if Ebrard can't get about 3 percent in large part because he has interacted with Calderon, what hope does a moderate leftist have of coming to power in the near future? That's kind of worrying.