Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Notes from Peña Nieto's Informe

This column from Francisco Garfias is a bit dated, but worth mentioning:
Elba Esther Gordillo must have felt terrible that Enrique Peña Nieto overlooked her at his last Informe. There was a special mention for many invitees that attended the crowded event, celebrated at the Teatro Morelos, in Toluca, but about the Maestra nothing, despite her being in the front row.

In other times it was unthinkable that the keynote speaker would ignore her. The affront could turn out costly. The power that she holds with her leadership of the teachers union; together with the myth that she always wins, made her seem as indispensable for a victory in any important popularly elected position.


Peña has now started his metamorphosis. He toughened up his rhetoric toward President Calderón. That's how it will be from now on --separated from the obligation to be institutional-- according to the rumors.

He said in his final message: "We still have not transitioned from an exclusively electoral democracy to a democracy of results, of a regime that secures agreements... The best option isn't that which condemns us to the past, but rather that which looks forward, which calls all of us (pay attention Los Pinos!) to confront the problems..."
It's not clear to me if that was Garfias saying watch out in Los Pinos or Peña Nieto, but in any event, there you have it.

If the Gordillo bit is a harbinger of a split, it will be interesting to see where she goes from here. AMLO famously blew her off in 2006, saying he doesn't work with mafiosas. He may be a bit more desperate now, but I doubt that we will see a rapprochement or anything resembling an alliance between the two. Vázquez Mota (assuming she is the PAN candidate) and Gordillo have a famously turbulent relationship during the former's spell as education secretary, a tenure that Gordillo is credited with ending prematurely. Vázquez Mota may well be desperate for support as well, but it's hard to see that old wound being healed. So that leaves Ebrard, but I don't believe he is particularly close with her, and he still may not run. Otherwise, could la Maestra be left out in the cold? It doesn't seem possible, but her cozying up to anyone outside of Peña Nieto seems more unlikely still.

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