Friday, July 1, 2011

What To Look for on Sunday

Zuckermann says that the reaction of the losing parties could give us a clue as to their approach to 2012:
The left's strategy is telegraphed: they are going to deny the results and disqualify the electoral institutions. The question is what the PAN will do. Will they join the protest? Will we return to the era of the 1980s of post-electoral conflicts with PRI victories? The national leader of the PRD, Jesús Zambrano, says that...there is already an agreement with the PAN to watch over the vote in EdoMex and that "there are not any shenanigans."

It seems that the real struggle in Edomex will begin Monday morning: Will the PAN join the left to repudiate a PRI victory? Will the State of Mexico become not only an electoral but post-electoral laboratory, ahead of the presidential elections in 2012?
From AMLO's perspective, it makes little sense whatsoever to make a big deal out of the loss, which will not be close. It will just remind people of 2006, which is the single even most responsible for his huge negative ratings. He's already got the rapid left in his pocket; now, he needs to find a way to tack toward the center. Although his reaction to 2006 was a substantial enough event that most everyone's mind is made up anyhow, so maybe he figures he has nothing to lose.

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