Thursday, July 21, 2011

On the PRI's Potential Pitfalls

From Jorge Fernández Menéndez:
The divisions and ruptures were decisive in those poor results. In 2000, the cost of the internal process, the confrontation between Francisco Labastida and Roberto Madrazo, was enormous, and although it is true that there were campaign errors that contributed ot the lost, the internal confrontation was so tough that the weaknesses of Labastida's campaign were made public (as it turned out, Fox exploited the blows that Madrazo had already thrown).

In 2006, the PRI achieved the poorest election its history. The divisions were many: first, between Madrazo and Elba Esther Gordillo; then, between Madrazo and what was called Tucom, which made the error of launching the candidacy of Arturo Montiel, which was destroyed, by the PRI itseld, within a couple of hours, which in turn led to many governors, in the dilemma of choosing between López Obrador or Calderón, choosing to support the PAN's candidate. The result was a disaster for the PRI.
It's hard to see anything like that happening this time out, if for no other reason than Peña Nieto's advantage is so daunting that it discourages any challenges--if you want to bet your career on challenging a juggernaut, you need to have some indication that you could win. So for the PRI to fall apart this time, there most likely needs to be a self-inflicted wound or a scandal of some kind.

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