Tempting Fate

In all my years as a Manning fan, I don't think I've ever felt less worried about a playoff game than today's against the Ravens. The variables the Ravens had going their way last were legion: Brady was not only horrible, but he also couldn't throw more than 15 yards without the pigskin fluttering like a wiffle ball; Rice had the huge run to start the game (outside of that scamper, he and the Ravens averaged around 3.5 yards a carry); the Ravens forced a series of early turnovers in Pats territory; and the Pats, who were missing their best offensive player, rolled over and died in the first quarter, which took the game out of Flacco's hands. The Colts, in contrast, will be able to hold the Ravens below 50 carries, will be able to go downfield on them, and will make Flacco pass more than ten times, which translates into a pick or four. I like the Colts by ten or so, maybe more.