Saturday, May 2, 2009

Extra Emphasis on The Last Paragraph

Macario Schettino on three epidemics: flu, rumors, and bad economic information: 
We don't know if on the 6th of May we will essentially be out of the emergency, we don't no if being out means returning in some way to normalcy, we can't know how much time the association of our country with this illness will stay in the mind of the rest of the world. 

Nevertheless, even without considering the epidemic, there is data that obliges us to revise what we have commented with you. Last week, foreign trade information for the first quarter was published, and Tuesday the data for economic activity in January and February. The information is very negative.

[Break]

In summary, with or without the epidemic, the economy is contracting a lot. With the addition [of the epidemic], things can't improve, on the contrary, [they can get worse]. What we can't know still is how much worse. It isn't worthwhile to start adjusting figure as long as we don't have sufficient information with which to do so. When we do, we'll not only have to correcte projections, but also imagine answers. Before the crises, we have to be more creative. But before we start imagining, we have to establish firmly what is the problem to resolve. 

That's why it's so important to not listen to all the rumors, emails, and false information. Although for any human being it's natural to seek explanations to phenomena, when you attempt to do so with little information paranoid explanations are created, conspiracy theories that seek to accuse someone: the animal breeders, pharmaceutical labs, and as always, the politicians and the gringos. All of this is, in the best-case scenario, false, and in the worst, a premeditated lie. Clean your mind of these things, wait for information and analysis, both of which we will provide here. And we will try to make sense of what is going on without resorting to paranoia, conspiracy, or easy insult. 

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