Movement

A new poll from GEA/ISA places Vázquez Mota just seven points behind Peña Nieto, 36 to 29 points in the latest voter preference survey. This poll is certainly not as untrustworthy as that which was mentioned by Calderón last week and which evidently measured a four-point margin, but among the major media polls, this latest one is an outlier. The Mitofsky poll released a few days ago had Peña Nieto on top by 15, an advantage of 40 to 25, a much more significant shortfall.

In each poll, López Obrador remains stuck at 17, lending credence to the idea that he has a hard cap on the support he can reliably expect.