Tuesday, November 16, 2010

B and L Security Polling

Buendía and Laredo have a new poll out with a potentially disturbing number for Calderón: 70 percent of those polled say his policies have made the country less secure, a number that has leapt 20 points since the last poll was conducted in August, which had been the highest figure for that question under Calderón. The people who say his policies make the nation safer amount to only 19 percent, which is down only 2 points from August and is not an all-time low. So essentially, all of the previously neutral respondents have become more negative, while the hard core that supports Calderón remains roughly the size.

Another new and potentially meaningful revelation in this poll: the number of people who view public security as the foremost problem in Mexico now outnumbers those who say the economy, by a 44-39 margin. In September of 2009, 64 percent said the economy was the biggest challenge against only 24 who said security, but it has been trickling the other direction ever since. Most pollsters (Pew being a prominent exception) have typically pointed to the economy as the worst problem, but with the economy improving and the security situation either worsening or plateauing at "really bad", you wonder if this shift will be mimicked in other polls. Although the sudden 20-point spike in people saying that the country is more unsafe thanks to Calderón makes you suspect that there was something funky with the sample.

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