Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Presidential Contenders

Mitofsky tells us nothing exactly new in its poll of presidential possibilities: there's Peña Nieto, and everyone else. The difference between those who see the Mexico State governor positively and negatively is 34 points in favor of the former group; only four of the 14 hopefuls had numbers in the black, and no one else exceeds an 11-point surfeit. Among priístas, the love is even greater: the net positive was 51 points among his party. If the polls are to be believed, the backup should Peña Nieto's candidacy implode appears to be Fidel Herrera. His net positive rating is 10.3 percent overall, which is second best, and 17.7 among his party, which is fourth best overall and second among priístas. Ebrard's 22-point positive among the PRD is admirable, but he has only a 4.4 net positive overall, which is worryingly low for someone as well known as he. AMLO is the best known of the potential candidates, but the 21-point negative seems unlikely to shrink enough for him to come close to winning the election. For the PAN, the best bets now are Santiago Creel (16 points positive among panistas), and Josefina Vázquez (9 points). None of the other candidates (Emilio González, Heriberto Félix, Ernesto Cordero, Alonso Lujambio, and Javier Lozano) scored above 25 percent in the general awareness rating, although I doubt Calderón would have in 2004. Another bad sign for the PAN: each and every one of them is in the red on their positive-negative rating.

Here's the obligatory reminder that it's only 2010 and a lot can change in the two-plus years leading up to the election.

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