Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Gancho's Favorite Parlor Game

That would be guessing why Calderón's popularity remains stratospheric (relative to the trajectory of the nation and the popularity of the presidents during the 1995 crisis). Leo Zuckermann has dedicated his last two columns to running down the possible explanations, evidently going from the most to the least convincing (paraphrased):

The 1995 crisis could be directly blamed on Salinas and Zedillo, while the present crisis came from afar.

Calderón has succeeded in making organized crime the principal lens through which people evaluate him, which is more favorable terrain for the president (somewhat oddly, given the continued violence).

The 1995 crisis exploded all at once and overwhelmed the public, while this one has unfolded over the course of months.

The crushing wave of inflation from 1995 has not surfaced in this crisis.

Calderón protects his image in the media with great skill.

The public recognizes that Congress is partly responsible for the present difficulties in Mexico, and thus spares Calderón the full fury of its disapproval.

Mexico is traditionally deferential toward the president, and as such is disinclined to disapprove of Calderón.

Mexico does not have a tradition of calling officials to account when things go badly under their command.

The polls are manipulated.

I don't have much original to add, but I'd say that all but the last two play a role.

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