Friday, September 25, 2009
Anyone who's going to take down Vitali Klitschko is going to have to employ a heavyweight version of Julio César Chávez's style: hit the body a lot (which is more open than his face), and be willing to take two or three punches to land one. I just don't see anyone out there now beating Klitschko from a distance; Klitschko's jab is too good, and he's too adept at leaning back, just out of his foe's range. Cris Arreola, is opponent on Saturday, has a better chance than anyone else I can think of employing that infighting strategy. He'll let his hands go, he'll come forward, and I think he'd risk a knockout rather than be allow himself to be picked apart on his way to a boring UD loss. Then again, there's a reason he's +800 in Vegas. Even if he can take a round or two or even four pressuring Klitschko, what have we seen from Arreola to suggest that he can go twelve rounds against Klitschko? He's never gone more than eight rounds, and rarely goes more than four. And that's against middling competition; what happens when he tires, and he starts getting whacked by one of the most relentless punchers in the sport? Nothing good, in my opinion. Arreola is aggressive enough and a hard enough puncher to warrant hope, but all of the above adds up to a mid-round stoppage.