More AMLO Speculation

Lots of commentary on AMLO's apparent announcement this weekend that he will seek the presidency in 2012 in El Universal today. (I say apparent because the use of "we" instead of "I" was conspicuous.) Here's Carlos Loret: 

For a powerful and power-hungry man, such as AMLO, the balance from 2006 to 2009 was negative, but didn't reach political bankruptcy. He's not politically dead, but he is gravely wounded (a metaphorical coroner would be shocked at the number of self-inflicted wounds). 

In this context, he announced that we will again seek the presidency in three years, in a position of much greater disadvantage than he had three years before the controversial contest in 2006. Then he appeared to be the favorite and the question was: what would have to happen for him not to take over Los Pinos? Today the equation is dramatically different and the question is flipped: what would have to happen for AMLO to be able to take over Los Pinos?

The former mayor has placed himself before the present president in a sort of political see-saw, in which he has no control over the balance: in so far as Calderón (the individual, not his party) does poorly, AMLO does well, and if the president does well, AMLO poorly, but not vice versa. Which is to say, López Obrador depends on the failure or success of Calderón, but the performance of the president has nothing to do with his self-proclaimed "legitimate" antagonist. 

And here's Ricardo Alemán: 

[T]he PRD only has two real candidates for 2012: Marcelo Ebrard and López Obrador. No one else. And if today they toss AMLO from the party, not only will they slice a vital portion of votes from the PRD --calculated at between 5 and 8 percent-- but they will also do away with the all of the hopes of Marcelo Ebrard. Which is to say that alone or separated, Marcelo and AMLO are electorally dead --along with the PRD-- in 2012. 

Within the PRD it is clear to everyone --and always with a strict pragmatic vision-- that the future of the PRD in 2012 is linked to the Ebrard-AMLO connection. It's the only formula capable of confronting the PRI and/or the PAN in 2012. That pragmatism sets forth, nevertheless, some fundamental question. Will Marcelo and AMLO fight for the presidential candidacy of the PRD? The answer is yes. They will do anything for the nomination. AMLO has already announced. And if today the power and advantage is with Ebrard, nothing is written in stone. 

What comes next is that the thread of what happened [at the recent PRD convention] in Morelia. The dispute for the candidacy should not or must not necessarily effect a divorce. The dispute is for a presidential candidacy. But after the fight the defeated party will join forces with the winner and they will walk together. Only together, for basic survival --not for unity-- will they be able to win power. Otherwise they are dead. That will be the re-foundation [of the PRD]. But one question will remain until the end. Will the tricky and megalomaniacal López Obrador respect the agreements? We'll see.