Crystal Balling

A couple of voices look forward to 2012. First, Carlos Loret reminds us that Peña Nieto's victory is not a foregone conclusion:

Peña Nieto already has one foot in Los Pinos, Andrés Manuel is dead, Ebrard is the only one in position on the left, the PAN has no one and it is lost, Paredes this, Beltrones that, Josefina or Creel maybe.

One look at the recent history of Mexican presidents mocks any premature conclusion when there are three long, intense years left in which anything can happen:

Vicente Fox in 1997 was a loquacious governor of Guanajuato that without the approval at the national level of his party celebrated his birthday by announcing his presidential aspirations with a head start never before seen in the history of Mexican politics, 1095 days.

Felipe Calderón in 2003 was working discreetly at the head of the development bank Banobras where he was being questioned for a mortage self-loan. And that's to say nothing of Ernesto Zedillo, who in 1991 didn't figure in any of the long lists of the "veiled" from his anodyne post as the secretary pf public education.

In less than three years Colosio was assassinated, Labastido feel apart and López Obrador watched his electoral advantage plummet. They were the leaders and many assumed that they were the future presidents.

And Jorge Chabat explains one of the disadvantages facing Peña Nieto:

If the elections in 2009 are an indicator --and it's true that mid-term elections rarely are-- the final matchup will be between candidates from the PRI and the PAN. And then, as in any final, anything can happen. It's true that the PRI already has at least three visible pre-candidates for the big one and in the PAN it's muddier. Nevertheless, the lack of clarity of one candidate is a double-edged sword: although it helps to have one or various figures positioned among public opinion, it also makes possible candidates more vulnerable. And if you don't agree, look at the attacks received by Peña Nieto --many of them probably with reason-- while in the PAN there is no one to attack, except President Calderón himself, who won't be a candidate in 2012.