AMLO and the PRD: the Dance Continues

The PRD leadership is sending feelers out to AMLO about offering his followers a certain number of candidacies in the upcoming summer elections. Jesús Zambrano, an ally of Jesús Ortega's, said, "We are convinced that we must consider the possible proposals that could come from the movement headed by Andrés Manuel." Ricardo Ruiz, a close AMLO associate, has offered himself as an interlocutor between the Tabascan and PRD's chief Ortega. All this follows several weeks of calm in the war of words between the two sides. 

Changing directions: for months, the conventional wisdom (perpetuated by, among many others, me) in regard to 2009 has been the PRI will make huge gains, the PAN will suffer significant losses, and the PRD dive headlong into disaster. I alluded to this a couple of weeks ago, and I repeat it now: I wonder if the conventional wisdom here is much more than a reflection of the recent past. After all, in 2008, the PRI made huge gains, the PAN suffered losses that approached significance, and the PRD suffered a disastrous stretch. This year, it seems more likely than not that some wild cards will surface before election day, which is still seven months away. With the candidate lists still nothing more than the subject of speculation, with the parties just beginning their electoral maneuvering, it's a bit presumptuous for everyone to expect 2009 to play out so predictably.