David Agren has a good summary of the PRI's advantages going into the campaigns for this summer's elections at World Politics Review.
Priísta Carlos Meza Viveros offers a real-life example of why those advantages may not be overwhelming (especially if prominent PRI figures keep associating themselves with petty criminality): the former Puebla interior secretary has been linked via recorded conversations to a string of robberies of religious art from Puebla churches.
One thing about the PRI's support that is important to keep in mind: much of it is circumstantial and shallow. The PAN and the PRD are presently more dysfunctional than the PRI, but every incident like the above triggers memories of myriad other scandals, and reminds voters just how flawed the party is.
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A couple quick things:
1. PRI unity took a hit earlier this week in the San Luis Potosi gubernatorial primary. The runner up alleges - without offering much proof - that the winner, the former state health secretary, was improperly supported by the PAN governor.
Still, the PAN primary was also messy. Sen. Alejandro Zapata, the preferred candidate of the national party leadership, won the nomination in a primary that allegedly involved PAN mayors diverting public funds to his campaign and the voter list being inflated. (Look for more PAN bickering in neighboring Nuevo Leon, where they're betting big on unseating the PRI.)
2. I didn't say this in the story, but positive local results don't necessarily translate into federal success.
3. PRI is very weak - if not non-existent - in Mexico City.
All that said, the left is divided - although some analysts still think that the combined PRD-PT-Convergence-PSD vote should top 25 percent - which favors the PRI in southern Mexico. A divided left would actually also favor the PAN in Mexico City if they could get their act together.
PAN, meanwhile, is staring down a rotten economy, which will hurt them at the polls. The PAN president tried saying the bad economy is not the government's fault, but that won't wash.
So, the midterm elections favor the PRI. I'd also put my early money on the PRI for 2012.
Hi David,
As far as 2012, I think it depends a whole lot on who gets the nod. If it turns out to be Ebrard versus Beltrones, the PRI's going to have a hard time winning. My knowledge of Peña is pretty superficial, but if he doesn't have any skeletons and if he's not a total empty suit, I think they'd be silly to go with any of the other names you hear bandied about. And for the PAN? I can't imagine that they'd nominate Creel in 2012 if he couldnt win in 2006, so who else is there? I've heard Gómez Mont mentioned, but that seems a little presumptious, since he was in mothballs three months ago. Any other names that you like?
In general, it'll be interesting to see not only how the local success will (or won't) translate to the federal level, but also how national-level problems trickle down to the local elections. The thing that's worrying for the PAN is that it's not just Espino fighting with Los Pinos, but stuff like what you mentioned in San Luis and Nuevo León.
I like the PRI, too, but I think it'll probably be less overwhelming than some of the predictions. If you were a Vegas handicapper, what do you think the over-under is for the PRI? 185 deputies, or 37 percent?
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