Excelsior wonders if the PRI, perhaps not unlike the Giants and the Titans, peaked too soon. Just as the aforementioned teams looked like world-beaters at the midway point of the season, the party had its best electoral year in a long, long time in 2008, not 2009, which is the year that counts. The party presently scores 48 percent in generic voter projection polls, which means that the party will become the prime piñata for the PRD and PAN before the candidates are even announced. The justifiable worry is that with the fire of each of its competitors concentrated upon it for seven more months, can the PRI sustain its present level of support?
Two comments: eventually, the PRI will reach its ceiling, and the fact that it's not the bestest party in the world will, once again, become evident to Mexicans. The steady drip of scandals and outrages will, once again, convince Mexicans to look to alternatives. With three reasonably bad but still viable governing options, it's hard to imagine any of the parties dominating the national electoral landscape for very long. The immediate question is, When will the PRI hit that ceiling?
The second point: even if the PRI underperforms in 2009 (and at this point a narrow plurality would be a disappointment), the lack of loyalty toward all of the political parties is such that any party, whatever its limitations, could win the presidency in 2012. The disgust with all the parties levels the playing field to an extent: without any party enjoying a significant long-term advantage in voter identification, it's all about the candidates. Really, it's not hard to imagine any of the parties hitting bottom next summer and then rebounding to win the presidency, depending on who they nominate in 2012.
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