Monday, October 25, 2010

What Will Manlio Do?

Ezra Shabot mused on Manlio Fabio Beltrones' future in last week's column:
Inside the PRI the national leadership with Beatriz Paredes and the majority of the deputies, and even part fo the weakened but still functioning corporatist apparatus, is lining up with Peña Nieto, while Beltrones is betting on the senators and many governors not ready to renounce their future aspirations and who see Manlio as an effective glue. It's a competition that until now can't express itself as such, because the circumstances don't allow the true cards to be laid and the campaigns to begin. While that continues, the president of the Senate will continue weaving relationships in all the realms of political power with the intention of using them when it is necessary.

From now until December, the invisible Beltrones-Peña dispute will be in suspense until we know whether there will be an agreement between the PAN and the PRD in the state of Mexico. If the Mexico state opposition finds a common candidate, this will oblige the priísta machinery to fall back on all the external help possible to stop the avalanche that an alliance of this nature would provoke. The only form for the eventual PRI candidate for governor to receive this help is a comprehensive negotiation that includes the PRI candidacy to the presidency.

The big question here, What will Manlio do in a moment such as this where his candidate runs the risk of losing many of his chips in the big race, and he also risks his position in the party ahead of 2012? It will be the decision of a calculating politician that knows when to take risks and when to negotiate positions. All of this depends on what Beltrones wants to do in 2012 and thereafter, and only he knows that, at least we assume he does.
Long story short: Beltrones and Peña Nieto have unfinished business, and we have little clue as to how it will play out, but we know 2012 hangs in the balance. Though we knew that already.

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