AMLO just announced that Ebrard is a respectable adversary, but that we will win the popular election that the PRD will hold to define its candidate. Which is to say, according to him, the method agreed to between he and Ebrard is a public and open consultation to define the candidate. In this point there will be, I don't doubt, discrepancies between the rivals. The issue of method is not a small one; in the method the candidate will be determined.
Knowing the PRD, it is clear to me that it will be AMLO. He enjoys his own national structure, outside of the three parties, aside from great popularity based on those organizations. Ebrard lacks that. Moreover, everything makes you think that he will strengthen his position to negotiate a tempting retreat: remain with the capital, by naming the candidate for the PRD to the mayoralty, as well as a Senate seat, to be ready for the presidential candidacy. In 2018.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
PRD Tea Leaves
Ricardo Pascoe Pierce, who knows the party well, says:
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7 comments:
FYI, that last year should be 2018 not 2012.
And while I like Pascoe, the idea of having to ponder the dynamics and/or personalities of the 2018 presidential race makes my head throb.
Thanks for the heads up, always with these mundane details. And as much as people always complain about the ever longer presidential election cycle in the US, the sexenio makes it seem even longer here. I'm going to set up a quiniela for the 2030 elections a few months from now, never too early.
Uh oh. It's gathering speed:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/editoriales/50202.html
Interesting that this Chabat piece is like the mirror image of the Pascoe one (at least within the PRD), right down to the ending.
Checking that article...now! More later.
While you're at it, go pick up the current New Yorker - the William Finnegan piece on Tijuana is excellent, one of the best drug war pieces I've seen in the US press. Quibbles to be discussed later...
on my list, I liked his stuff from Michoacan...
RE CHabat, guessing someone else's inner motivation is always a little troublesome, and as far as predicting his bets eight years down the line it would seem futile. So my rebuttal to him isn't any more or less based in reality than his original thought. But with AMLO, since 2006 I've always felt he reacted first and foremost from spite, and then found a way to link his political goals to spite. Kinda like McCain. And that would argue against a long-term plan to sink Ortega and win Los Pinos in 2018.
And the similarities with Pascoe's pierce are indeed striking.
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