Peña Nieto Navigates the Río PRI

In Nexos, Macario Schettino weighs in on Peña Nieto's path to the presidency, his throwing in his lot with the Paredes-ista bloc of the party, and the competing personalities of the PRI:

For [Peña Nieto to become a viable presidential option] it will require him to have on his side the group that controls the Senate and maintains a more than symbolic presence in among the PRI deputies. The group that Manlio Fabio Beltrones heads could carry Peña Nieto to the presidency. But it could block his path.

Although Peña Nieto’s ideological flexibility isn’t an obstacle, the group to which he belongs isn’t so malleable. The economic vision of the hegemonic groups in the Chamber of Deputies doesn’t seem to come from the same party that generated the proposal to reform the state known as the “Eight R’s”. As was the case six years ago, the PRI clutches, but doesn’t hold on.

In the logic of the old regime, unity was obligatory. It was behind the president of the country, the natural boss of the party. Today that no longer exists, in that there is no external forces that mandates unity. The ideological and political differences do exist, and they aren’t small. For many priístas it could be preferable to not win the presidency if that were to mean strengthening their position. Why would the PRI governors, virtual viceroys, want to again have a president from their party? Is the goal of winning the presidency worth the risk of the limited economic advances?

Ultimately, there are two visions of Mexico to which the parties subscribe. The presidential contest pits the two against each other. Peña Nieto has chosen one. Precisely the one that lost the previous two elections.

The above seems correct, but I don't think that Peña Nieto's choice dooms him in 2012 (nor, I should add, is Schettino saying that it automatically does). Unfortunately, I'd say a majority of swing voters everywhere make their choices based more on a vague sense of the appeal of the candidate rather than a concrete understanding of policies. (It would have been nice to see some polling on this issue ahead of the July elections; if there was any, I missed it.) Appeal and policies can of course overlap (i.e. Kerry's perceived flip-flopping on Iraq fed the decidedly unappealing impression of him as a man of wishy-washy character; H. W. Bush's tax increase pulled off a similar trick), but as long as policy prescriptions aren't so off the wall as to make the candidate seem like a loon or a wimp, the competition for the independents usually boils down to personal appeal, much more favorable terrain for the governor of Mexico State.