1) The PRI will not have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, and will register 37 or 38 percent of the national vote.
2) The PRI's potential majority with the Green Party is "a coin flip".
3) The PAN is not likely to reach 168 deputies, based on a 32 percent figure in the national vote.
4) The PRD's upper limit is probably 15 percent, which will leave it with around 85 deputies. That would be 12 less than it won in 2003, and 42 less than it has today.
5) The PSD will very likely lose its registration due to the poor showing. Convergencia and Nueva Alianza have a better chance of avoiding a similar fate.
6) The null votes will be few, but enough for the movement to continue.
7) The PRI's Rodrigo Medina will certainly win the governor's post in Nuevo León.
8) The fire in Sonora will likely leave the PAN with a slight advantage in Sonora.
9) Clara Brugada will win on the ballot, which means Silvia Oliva will win in reality. Zuckermann adds, "It sounds surreal because essentially it is".
10) Demetrio Sodi will win in Miguel Hidalgo.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Electoral Predictions
At the risk of turning Gancho into a translation service for Leo Zuckermann columns, his column yesterday offered ten predictions for Sunday, which are paraphrased below:
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6 comments:
The big winner: the Green Party. It cynically exploited the death penalty issue almost immediately after kidnapping victim Fernando Marti's body was found in the trunk of an abandoned car in Coyoacán last summer. Only in Mexico does the Green Party promote a pro-life, pro-death penalty agenda, and lack the endorsements of any serious ecological groups.
Yeah they are a bunch of opportunist jokers, there is nothing green about them. Their trio of proposals have nothing to do with the environment. I do wonder if they'll grow larger if PSD and Nueva Alianza disappear. I also wonder if their campaign will turn into something of a model: simple as can be, and supported by familiar, attractive faces. It seems like the Lakoff-ization of Mexican politics, to a certain degree. Did they have any big-time American consultants working with them?
Not sure about the American consultants working for the PVEM.
Ironically, Nueva Alizana had the best promos in 2006 - better than the PAN - with its pitch, "Give us one of your three votes." It worked - especially considering how disastrous the scowling Panal presidential candidate Roberto Campa performed in the debates. El Universal had a story Thursday saying that a consultant from Venezuela helped put together that ad.
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/169386.html
The PSD will most likely disappear. I chatted with the party No. 2 a few days ago and he said it was uncertain how the PSD would do. (His candor was amazing since most party people talk like everything pertaining to the election outcome is a done deal.) That party wasted too much energy on a civil war last year that ousted Patricia Mercado, its 2006 candidate, when the PSD was know as Alternativa. (Changing the name was absolutely idiotic - and a petty attempt at marginalizing Mercado's accompishments.) That woman was gold. Her 2006 campaign build a modest constituency that was enough to win the 2 percent necessary for the party to stay registered with the IFE and ensure the delivery of more than 400 million pesos over the past three years in public financing.
Many people have said, however, that she is tough to work with - and those were the kind things that they said about her.
http://agren.blogspot.com/search?q=Patricia+Mercado
That's a good piece from March 2008. I've never thought about 2006 with Mercado playing Nader to Amlo's Al Gore, but I guess that's how it was. As far as the debates, I had a pretty similar reaction, I remember thinking Mercado seemed great, and that yeah Campa was ghoul.
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