Cooperation in the New Congress

Via the Mexico Institute, Alejandro Schtulmann has a new take on the post-election landscape in Mexico:

For some time now a number of analysts have suggested that the strengthening of the PRI in Congress would imperil Calderon's reform agenda or prevent structural reforms from being passed. However, this type of speculation is faulty on a number of grounds.

After its momentous defeat in the 2006 Presidential and Congressional elections, the PRI learned that adopting a negative role in Congress (i.e. blocking the government's initiatives, publicly confronting the Executive) was a key factor behind its demise. But the party rectified. It might not have reinvented itself, as many of its members demanded, but it has rebuilt its discipline and adopted a hands-on, constructive role in Congress.

Speaking as someone who's done some speculating along the lines of what Schtulmann is talking about, I think he's right to say that PRI obstructionism isn't a foregone conclusion. However, he basically commits the same error in assuming that the PRI will be cooperative because they learned their lesson in 2006. First of all, the PRI's devastating loss in 2006 had a lot more to do with Madrazo than it did with its behavior in Congress during the Fox years. Futhermore, a just as likely scenario is that the PRI thinks that letting the economy suffer a bit more, blaming the damage on the PAN, denying Calderón any final feathers in his cap, and nominating a more broadly appealing candidate in 2012 than Madrazo is the path back to power.

The point is, we don't know. Whether or not the PRI will behave cooperatively, whether or not the PAN can rebuild a professional relationship with PRI leaders after months of kidney shots from Germán Martínez, those are the gigantic question marks going forward, and it's a mistake to write with anything resembling certainty about these possibilities. We simply don't know.

I also think it's a mistake (one I have made, I hasten to add) to say that the PRI has been absolutely cooperative for the past three years, whereas it was entirely uncooperative before, as though they were mutually exclusive, binary conditions. The oil reform passed, but it was a lot more superficial than it would have been with a PAN majority. Cooperation doesn't necessarily mean Calderón's agenda is advanced. Furthermore, during the Fox years no major reforms were passed, but I believe most of the bills he introduced were in fact passed. (I may be wrong about that and I can't find a link, but I remember reading a companion to this piece from December in Milenio that supported the above statement.)