Shifting Polls

Leo Zuckermann cited a Consulta Mitofski poll I'd missed in yesterday's column, which shows the following breakdown for projected votes in the 2009 congressional elections: 46 percent for the PRI, 35 percent for the PAN, and 15 percent for the PRD. This poll shows significant movement toward the PRI and away from the PAN. Only a couple of months ago, most polls were showing about 39-40 percent for the PRI and the PAN, with about 17 percent for the PRD. The Mexican punditry has been talking about the PRI's improving position for what seems like an eternity now; it seems like the polls are starting to catch up with that sentiment.

Zuckermann highlights the danger in a poor performance by the PAN.

In fact, with these numbers from the poll two possible scenarios that would be terrible for the president take shape. First: that the PAN loses more than 50 deputies. Why 50? Well because that's the number of legislators that the PAN lost in the mid-term elections in 2003. If it shrinks more than that, everyone will say that Calderón lost more deputies than Fox, which would be a message of governmental weakness. But that's not the worst scenario for the PAN now that, with 46 percent of the votes, in the mixed electoral system that we have, the PRI could win a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. This would send an even more forceful message of government weakness.