Marcelo and Andrés Manuel

Carlos Loret offers an interesting assessment of the relationship between the last two mayors of Mexico City (excluding the Encinas appointment). They aren't close, but they both avoid spats because each needs something from the other. The mass political movements in the capital are still loyal to López Obrador, so Ebrard needs his support to ensure that in a fit of pique he doesn't sink DF in a wave of protests. At the same time, López Obrador has no actual political position, so he needs Ebrard, who governs the PRD's most important base of support and the controls the nation's second biggest coffer, to keep the money flowing to his movement, or else it dies. (He doesn't specify how exactly Ebrard funds AMLO, but I would guess Loret means that he gives money to his supporters within the DF government rather than directly transferring city funds to AMLO. Given that AMLO doesn't have an office, the latter would have to be illegal, right?)

Loret correctly points out that this marriage of convenience is destined to come to an end by 2011, as both men start gearing up for a presidential run. I think Ebrard should have done more to distance himself from AMLO, especially his more extreme actions, like taking over the congressional building and persisting with the protest in 2006. In 2012, he'll have a hard time overcoming Mexicans' dislike of AMLO and his present connection to him, even if it is just for convenience. As far as AMLO, unless something truly catastrophic happens to Mexico (and I struggle to conceive with something of sufficient magnitude), his presidential ambitions will never advance much beyond his imagination.