Cuba and Mexico, Friends Again

The two neighbors are continuing their rapprochement, the latest iteration being the love-in during the Cuban Foreign Minister's visit to Mexico last week, which included an invitation for Calderón to return the favor in a trip to Havana.

Jorge Chabat attributes the gooeyness to Calderón's domestic needs, especially oil reform. The Cuban Minister pointedly mentioned during his trip that Cuba allows oil partnerships with private companies. With Latin America's socialist icon basically signing off on the most controversial element of the reform, the Mexican Left's case against reform lost a lot of salience. More generally, Calderón backtracking from Fox's harsh treatment of Cuba makes it a lot harder for his adversaries to paint the mildly conservative president as an American pawn. Chabat wonders the panistas --who tirelessly criticized the PRI for its close ties to Cuba during the Revolutionary Era-- will do when and if Calderón "is sipping mojitos in Havana?" It's an unsavory choice: they can either attack their own president, or abandon their principled opposition, which was less than a decade ago one of the few major differences between themselves and the business-friendly wing of the PRI.

I also wonder what Calderón will do if Cuba's democratic transition starts while he is still in power. He has more than four years left, so it's certainly not inconceivable. A too close embrace of the Castros could preclude any Mexican influence over the transition.