Thursday, May 22, 2008
Referendum + Confusing Subject = Bad Idea
I see from Ana María Salazar's blog (always a useful read for English-speakers wanting a quick synopsis of the day's news) that Marcelo Ebrard wants a national referendum on oil reform. If there is a policy issue less apt for a referendum, I can't think of it. Oil reform has about as many moving parts as a space shuttle, and all of them are vitally important. The basic issue--how can Mexico's oil flow best be guaranteed for future generations, and how can the revenue be most effectively harnessed--is pretty clear, but addressing it raises a host of other questions. For starters: How can Pemex reduce its staggering debt? How much should Pemex contribute to the federal government each year? If Pemex can't do it on its own, what sorts of affiliations are necessary for Mexico to access deep-water oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico? Would these affiliations require changes to the Constitution? What is the best way to streamline the Pemex employees' union? How can Pemex cut down on corruption? To answer these questions expertly, you'd need to be an economist, an oil industry engineer, a labor expert, and a lawyer with three different specialties. Needless to say, the majority of Mexicans are none of these, much less all of them at once.
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