Medina Mora on Drug Wars

The drug war in Mexico is often called Calderón's Iraq, and the comparison is a poor fit, to say the least. However, reading this article, it's easy to see how Mexicans could have the same feeling that Americans did during the era of reality-challenged quotes from the Department of Defense and the White House in 2005 and 2006. The gist: Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora says the government is winning the drug wars, although it doesn't look like it at present.

Are Medina Mora's comments supported by the facts (at least, the facts the public sees)? Not recently. It's extremely hard to gauge progress in the battle with the cartels, but probably the two most important indicators of progress (or "metrics," to continue with that word that Rumsfeld left behind, a regrettable semantic legacy that matches his operational one perfectly) are the level of violence and the amount of territory in which the cartels dominate. In 2008, the first has clearly been on the rise, while the second's trajectory is less clear.

My first reaction was that Medina Mora's comments sound really foolish given all the violence of the past month, but then I wonder what else he should say. I don't think he's lying, and I'm not sure what a pessimistic assessment would accomplish. Unlike the United States in Iraq, pulling out of Mexico is not an option for Mexicans. Unlike the White House's silliest comments, this isn't witless optimism designed to maintain a disastrous adventure. Perhaps he should have phrased it "We will win" instead of "We are winning," but at the very least he didn't declare the cartels to be in their death throws.