The outpouring of drug-related violence in Mexico over the last few months has made it indisputably clear that President Felipe Calderón's government is engaged in a fight to the death against the powerful criminal gangs that run the cross-border drug trade. For Mexico, the stakes are all too clear: Either it prevails or the country becomes one big sanctuary for druglords.
A few problems: first, it isn't a fight to the death. The cartels that operate now will probably be around in some form or another when Calderón leaves office in four and a half years, and even if they aren't, other groups will surely take their place. Calderón's government, in all likelihood, will survive intact for the duration of his term as well. So does that make it a fight to the ... stalemate? Accommodation? I don't know, but to the death it isn't. The second sentence is likewise a gross overstatement: regardless of the Mérida money, Mexico will neither decisively defeat the drug lords, nor will it become a gigantic safe house. It will remain well within the two extremes, much as it is today.
This may seem like minor nitpicking, but with all this ridiculously big talk, the initiative's backers are setting Americans up for disappointment, and setting Mexico up for a congressional beating when the package invariably falls short of the promises. The potential improvement in Mexico's security situation is limited, and the initiative's supporters should know this. Rather than peering into the same rose-colored crystal ball that made the Iraq War possible, they should be explaining why the package makes sense despite the grim outlook.
For more of my opinion of the Mérida Initiative, click here. Or here.
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