Deputy Godoy

Julio César Godoy, the half-brother of the Michoacán governor, appears more likely to take his seat in the Chamber of Deputies, after a judge in Puebla (why there?) suspended the warrant for his arrest. PRD leader Alejandro Encinas says he has no problem with Godoy taking the seat. A PGR spokesman responded that the ruling has no impact on their warrant, and Godoy will be arrested as soon as he pops up.

Regardless of whether you think he is innocent of all charges, or whether you believe he is guilty as sin, Godoy's serving a term in Congress with a warrant out for his arrest would make a mockery of Mexico's criminal justice system.

Tax Debate Turning?

PRI Senate leader Manlio Fabio Beltrones says that his bloc is willing to discuss a value-added tax, which is a big step away from the nononoincaseyoumisseditNO! we've been hearing from virtually every priísta in recent weeks. That declaration comes as the Finance Secretariat proposed a value-added "tax for the poor", under which staples of the economy diet (canned beans, corn tortillas, et cetera) will be exempt.

Record Setters

The New York Times today offers a summary of Mexico's recent run of records, which range from public smooching to cheesecake to baby bull fighting. I can't say I blame the author or the editor for including it, but the inevitability of this paragraph amused me, in a depressing sort of way:

In many ways, it has been a rough year in Mexico, with the swine flu outbreak, the economic crisis and continuing violence tied to the country’s drug cartels. But it has been a good year for records, from the largest meatball to the biggest smooch fest, with many others in between.

Brace Yourself: Reaction to Chávez Chávez

Bajo Reserva wonders if Arturo Chávez Chávez will be able to win approval from the Senate:

Against common sense and republican tradition, the designation of the new attorney general wasn't checked out with the Senate, where the appointment must be confirmed. Among senators, the naming of Arturo Chávez Chávez caused surprise. But above all that the president didn't even take the trouble to lobby caused a great deal of head-scratching. Now, various sources in the Senate (where Felipe Calderón doesn't have a majority) tell us that the appointment of the ex-attorney general of Chihuahua is at risk. In any event, Chávez Chávez provokes irritation in a wide swath of civil society. Let's not forget that he served as attorney general during the governorship of Francisco Barrio Terrazas, and at that point the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, the National Commission on Human Rights, Amnesty International, the UN, and many other organizations requested everything from his removal to a jury trial for his contempt, from the final years of the 1990s and 2002, for various recommendations about the murder of women in Ciudad Juárez. The governments of Mexico, Chihuahua, and Juárez were implored to hold Chávez Chávez responsible on numerous occasions. And now the president names him attorney general without even consulting the other branch of government. How should this decision be taken? Is there something that hasn't been communicated to everyone else?

Ouch. I don't know anything about Chávez's performance in Chihuahua and therefore I'll have to reserve comment on that element of the controversy. But as to the rest of it, if the Senate sources are correct, it's hard to imagine that Calderón, a former federal legislator, would ignore established protocol, especially given the inevitably controversial nature of the nominee, simply because it slipped from his radar screen. So how should this be taken? If the above is true, I'd say as a sign that Calderón has no intention of altering his execution of Mexico's federal security policy, election results be damned.

Along those lines, the Wall Street Journal (H/T) has a quote in its rundown of the changes from Jorge Montaño:

Jorge Montaño, a former ambassador to the U.S. and a native of Chihuahua, said Mr. Chávez did a good job, but lamented that the president hadn't reached out beyond the ranks of the PAN. "It's all the same gang," he said.

Like Obama with Robert Gates, this seems like it would have been the right post at the right time to hand over to a member of the opposition.

Cabinet Changes

The long-awaited changes to Calderón's cabinet are official: Eduardo Medina Mora is out as Mexico's attorney general, to be replaced by Arturo Chávez. Pemex director José Reyes Heroles has also been removed, leaving the company in the hands of Juan José Suárez Coppel. Lastly, Agricultural Secretary Alberto Cárdenas is now the former agricultural secretary, with Francisco Javier Mayorga taking over. 

Chávez is a lawyer with experience in the Chihuahua state government, as well as in the Interior Secretariat. Suárez is a corporate finance expert, whose resume includes high-ranking positions with Grupo Modelo (most recently), Banamex, Televisa, and a previous stint at Pemex.

Violence in the Laguna

Yesterday, readers of El Siglo de Torreón learned that the number of murders in the Laguna in 2009 has already doubled from last year. At the present rate, almost 550 people will be murdered in the Laguna this year, more than ever before.

At the same time, the city never felt more anarchic, more frightening than it did last summer, when the present wave of violence was just beginning in earnest. In recent months, I've heard people comment time and again about how everything has calmed down here in the last few months. In fact, just the opposite is true. Part of this is explained by the arrival of the Federal Police and the army (they began patrolling in force in August 2008), which offers some reassurance that there are groups more powerful than the criminals in town. Another factor in the perception gap is the fact that newspapers don't ignore crime quite as studiously as they did a year ago, which means people are no longer so reliant on (often exaggerated) rumor for their information. But more than anything, I think it shows the rather admirable ability of humans to adapt and thrive despite worsening circumstances.

Town Hall

Felipe Calderón tossed a bit of American cheese into informe week with a town hall meetings last night, which went by the name of "Citizen Dialogue". Cheese notwithstanding, more direct interaction between governors and governed can't hurt, and someday it might lead to some really insightful exchanges. Alas, last night it wasn't to be, with the most memorable moment being Calderón's recognition that crime won't end with his sexenio.

Arrest in Juárez

Mexican authorities have arrested an allegedly powerful Juárez drug runner, and says that he is a suspect in the murder of 17 in a drug rehab facility last week. Richard raises some questions here.

Like Richard, I'm open to the possibility of the arrestee (José Rodolfo Escajeda) being behind the massacre, but I'm not yet convinced. It's odd how quickly it followed the killings (just four days), and it remains to be seen why an ostensibly rich and powerful criminal would decide that it was in his interest to create international headlines by murdering 17 drug addicts with little known connection to him or each other, aside from their residence in the rehab center. Then again, not being a psychopath, I have a distinctly difficult time conjuring the reasons for which one might suddenly be motivated execute 17 addicts.

Looking the Part, Continued

A few weeks ago we mentioned how Marcelo Ebrard was doing a great job looking presidential-ish. Not to be outdone, Enrique Peña Nieto's fourth Mexico State informe, positively overflowing with presidential pomp (and pompousness!), has received as much loving attention as a newborn baby does from its grandparents. Even up here in Coahuila, some six states away from Mexico, the reports on his informe were all over the news. Much of the content of the informe, such as the declaration of war on poverty and insecurity, made it seem as though his local constituency was only a secondary audience.

The ball's in your court, Marcelo!

Monday Reading

The Supreme Court and stuff.

World Cup Points

The US had to come from behind to knock off El Salvador at home, a slightly worrying fact. In the three qualifiers before that, they lost to Mexico in Azteca (no shame there), but they also had to recover from a deficit against Honduras at home, and were blown out in Costa Rica. It seems as though beating Spain and giving Brazil all they could handle in the Confederations Cup has covered up an otherwise dreary six-month stretch for the American side. I like watching them better with Donovan playing a more midfield distributor role and Altidore up front (and I believe it was the beginning of this year when they switched primarily to said style), but I'm not sure it's made them better.

Argentina looked jittery and unsure of itself in the 3-1 home loss to Brazil. As has been the case the last few times they've played, Brazil's physicality seems to have bothered Argentina, and Messi didn't get as many touches as you'd like. I don't know how much of the blame should be laid at Maradona's feet, but the Argentines haven't exactly gelled under Diego's tutelage. Now they find themselves in an unenviable position: firing Diego while qualification is still a likelihood would throw the team into turmoil with only a few months to recover and would presumably provoke a public relations disaster. At the same time, how is it possible that a team with Argentina's talent looks like it is nowhere near ready to compete for the Cup next year?

Mexico's 3-0 win in San José was the best win for the national team since, since, since, I guess since the 6-0 win over Paraguay in the Copa America in 2007. Dos Santos keeps getting better and better, and figured prominently in every goal. It seemed weird at the time that Aguirre wasn't starting Guardado, but in retrospect that worked perfectly. I'd say the defense actually looks better without Rafa Márquez, whose offensive pretensions often slow the attack. It should also be pointed out that Mexico didn't really dominate the flow of the game, nor did they have dozens of quality chances: they just played tight defense, and took advantage of the few opportunities they saw, which is a lot more than could be said of el Tri under Sven-Goran.

New Book

I've just started reading Gomorra, a book about the Italian mafia whose cover is adorned by the above picture, which I believe comes from the Italian movie based on the book. One of the impediments to me digging into the book in earnest is the cover itself: I inevitably stare at the image for several minutes at a time before I start reading, and I never advance more than three pages at a time without returning to the cover. I find everything about it, from the bleak beach backdrop to their attire to their apparent screams to their machine guns, fascinating. 

Opening Night

The three turnovers against such an overmatched adversary were more than I'd like, and I'm not crazy about teams that score 28 fourth-quarter points (14 of them coming on passes from the first-team QB) against what is essentially 1-AA opposition, but otherwise, it was a successful first outing at Neyland for Coach Lane. There's a lot of talent in the backfield, the offense was moving like it hasn't in years, and the defense looked as though it hasn't missed a beat after losing John Chavis. But then again, Kiffin's tenure won't be remembered for blowouts of the Hilltoppers. 

Mexico as a Kindergarten Lesson

Cooperation is the word of the day in Mexico, what with Nava and Ortega dining together, with the PAN's Demetrio Sodi (who defeated the PRD's Ana Guevara for the chiefdom of the Miguel Hidalgo delegation) calling on Marcelo Ebrard to work with him, and PRI Francisco Rojas, newly named coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies, meeting today with Calderón. We shall see how long this lasts, but I don't remember any of Calderón's other informes generating a similar atmosphere of goodwill. Or if goodwill is too strong, then something along the lines of constructive tolerance.

Giddying Myself Up!

Argentina! Brazil! Messi! Tévez! Kaká! Robinho! Tomorrow! I can't wait!!!

Also, Maradona! Pelé! Check out their latest spat:

The always controversial Maradona has raised the intensity of the rivalry in recent times, saying things like "I was a better player than Pelé was" and "Argentina have better players than Brazil", but it takes a lot to provoke the Brazilian legend, who hit back with a ferocity usually associated with one of his shots ahead of the game in Rosario.

"I'm confident in Brazil, most of all against teams who we have always been superior to, like Argentina," he said this week. ''Beating great rivals like Argentina gives you a different feeling. However, we all know who Maradona is. We cannot take into consideration anything he says.''

Also, the Argentine coach took his boys to pray. Great stuff, all of it.

The Perfect Place for Schilling

Given his stated reasons (only occasionally brushing up against coherence) for a Senate candidacy, his philosophy (vaguely populist), and, most importantly, his years of savaging the Yankees/Yanquís, wouldn't Curt Schilling be a better candidate for Latin American public office? Especially if he had a time machine and could run as his 2009 self in the 1980s.

Dying Tradition?

The 27th annual Conference of Border Governors has lost some luster this year, with only half of the Mexican leaders and none of the Americans attending. Indeed, it is more than anything a conference of northeastern Mexican governors, with only Coahuila, Tamaulipas, and Nuevo León represented by their top official. I wonder if this has to do with the federalization of the border (i.e. the appointment of Alan Bersin as border czar) taking some of the air out of the governors' role in the region.

Hanging Out

César Nava and Jesús Ortega had what sounds like a friendly (though not particularly productive) meeting at a restaurant in Polanco this week, to search for possible areas of cooperation between the PAN and the PRD. No agreements were hashed out, but it's striking how quickly the atmosphere among the parties has changed with the elections over with and Germán Martínez out of the picture.

The Missing Deputy

The only one of the 500 deputies-elect who was not sworn in this weekend was Julio César Godoy, wanted by federal authorities for his connections to the Michoacán criminal group, The Family. Since then, despite the pleas of his fellow perredistas and even his half-brother (the governor of Michoacán), Godoy has lived on the lam. Now, he has reappeared, hopeful that he will be granted the exemption from prosecution that elected officials in Mexico enjoy, despite the preexisting warrant for his arrest.

Getting around the Rules

One method through which Mexico's political parties lessen the impact of the gender quotas (40 percent of legislative candidates must be women) is by running female candidates, then removing them for their male alternates if they win. We have eight such cases this year, four of them alone from the Green Party, which represents almost 20 percent of their total contingent. Despite the quota, women remain underrepresented in the lower house, with (by my surely faulty count) only about a quarter of the seats.

PRI's Economic Plan

The plan, which was presented in the wake of Calderón's informe, calls for no new taxes but purports to close the fiscal gap by reducing tax evasion. How will it do that? Through mandating prison sentences for Hacienda officials who abet underpayment or non-payment of taxes.

This seems wholly unserious. It's not that tax evasion shouldn't be addressed, nor should new taxes necessarily be imposed, but this is like the Republicans who say that government will be shrunk not by cutting programs but by eliminating waste. Not going to happen. Based on what people who have to deal with Hacienda tell me, the essential problem for tax election is one of culture. Tax collectors and their targets often treat tax payment as something akin to a bargaining session at a downtown market. You can't monitor every taxpayer/taxman thoroughly enough to make the punishment uniformly applied and therefore an effective incentive to modify behavior that has persisted for decades. At least not to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. I'd also add that you should think twice about going from something that is wink-wink OK to a jailable offense in such a short time, but I guess any anti-corruption effort implies some of that.

The article linked above says also that the PRI supports incorporating a balanced budget requirement into the federal budget law, which likewise seems a totally ill-fitting, unrealistic approach to the problems of the day.

Gustavo's Request

This is interesting: Gustavo Madero, a powerful panista senator who (I believe) is neither an adversary nor an acolyte of Felipe Calderón, is calling for the army to be gradually returned to the barracks during the next three years.

Anti-Corruption Measures in Mérida

The US earlier this week announced the release of $214 million of the Mérida Initiative, tabbed for helicopters, training of Mexican services, X-ray machines for use at the border, and other goodies. In the Mexican and (to a lesser extent) the American media, the release was spun as having an anti-corruption concentration, but it doesn't sound like funds already earmarked for hardware have been diverted into training or monitoring purposes. And, as Shannon O'Neil wrote last year, only about 20 percent of the Mérida money (read: not nearly enough) went toward institution-building in fiscal year 2008. So unless there's been cuts in helicopters and airplanes in favor of increases elsewhere, all that fluff is pretty meaningless.

Nor does this interview with border czar Alan Bersin give much confidence in that regard. I'll probably write more on this later, but if you check his answer to the question coming at about 1:30, he's basically defending the fact that anti-corruption is low on the list of Mérida priorities. Incidentally, I thought the questions were pretty good, but I'd like to see drug warriors politely asked about the viability of the legalized marijuana every time they grant an interview.