Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Demonstrations of AMLO's Rise, Demonstrations of a Wide Gap

A poll set up by the firm Berumen and conducted on behalf of a coalition of universities shows AMLO at a distance within the margin of error from Peña Nieto. The discussion over the poll has been a little odd; Berumen was evidently instrumental in designing the sample and doing some other technical legwork, but the firm evidently was not involved in interpreting the results, and Berumen's director neither "endorses nor rejects" the findings. So make of that what you will, but it's a second technical tie in the last couple of weeks.

A new poll from Mitofsky, which was also carried out before the debate, shows a bleaker scenario for AMLO, with Peña Nieto enjoying a 12-point gap over his PRD rival. Debates can have an outsized impact on preferences, but, like Boz, I didn't see any moments likely to shake up the race too much, which, with less than three weeks to go, counts as a win for the frontrunner.

Finally, Milenio's tracking poll, which has typically leaned toward Peña Nieto, shows a 15-edge for the PRI candidate.

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