Random Thoughts Based Around León Krauze's Opinions of Barack Obama

I don't think too many people watched Obama's convention speech here, but the average reaction of those I've spoken to who did catch it was blown away. León Krauze, one of the more knowledgeable US-watchers in Mexico, liked Obama's performance a lot, calling him a "mature politician" and saying that "he's grown," but he seems to like McCain's veep pick even more. I disagree; the Palin pick seems like a big risk with little upside. I don't think any significant number of Hillary voters will switch because of Palin, and the obvious calculation behind the pick may turn off swing voters of both genders. It may help solidify McCain's status as a maverick (I hate that label more every day; I wish you could kill words), but whether the Republican nominee carries his iconoclastic reputation into November depends more on whether Obama goes really negative than on McCain's veep pick. It seems like a lot of unflattering sound bites from Palin are already trickling out, and who knows what other silly statements she may have made during her years as a tiny-town mayor?

Two weeks ago, despite his obvious admiration for Obama and his slim lead in the polls, Krauze said he'd bet against Obama if he was laying his money on the line, so I'd say he's being unduly pessimistic. Of course, I said the same thing four years ago about people predicting a Bush victory.

Another notable thing about Krauze: his newspaper columns feature perhaps the longest paragraphs in the game today. Over his last three columns, Krauze has averaged four paragraphs over about 1,000 words. Quite something.