Moving and Shaking in the Polls. Up to a Point.

Josefina Vázquez Mota stands atop the list of presidential aspirants based on Excélsior's mixture of public notoriety and popularity. She has net opinion rating of +36, compared to +21 for Peña Nieto and +10 for López Obrador. Just 9 percent of those polled expressed a negative opinion about her, compared to 31 percent for Peña Nieto and 25 percent for López Obrador. Furthermore, 28 percent either didn't know here or didn't have an opinion on her (9 and 6 percent, respectively, were the corresponding figures for Peña Nieto and López Obrador), which suggests that her popularity could grow significantly. However, it also suggests that no one knows here particularly well, and she could crater as the microscope trains on her ever more intensely. In any event, this is positive news for the PAN. Now, if they could only get around to nominating her.

The bad news, however, is that 50 percent of those polled expressed a preference that the PRI win in the coming election, a figure 24 points above that of the PAN and 26 above that of the PRD.