Good Ideas from Unfortunate Sources

Santiago Creel says the PAN should open itself up to society more. I assume he is referring to the PAN's restrictive membership; unless I am mistaken, it is the only party that requires a probitive period for members, and is thus the party that most resembles your typical SA∑ house. Good idea!

Vicente Fox says all the political parties should employ primaries to select candidates with greater frequency. Once more, good idea!

The problem is that these ideas are viewed within the context of Creel, Fox, and co's ongoing dispute with Calderón for control of the PAN, and it's virtually impossible to objectively consider such ideas coming from such mouths at such as a moment as this. And, as Crespo pointed out several weeks ago, Creel and Fox had a pretty good opportunity to open the PAN and establish stricter primary procedures in the not-too-distant past. You know, when they ran they ran Mexico for six years.

Oddly, as a rebuttal of the inevitability of the Peña presidency in 2012, Fox didn't mention Creel, or Vázquez, or Gómez Mont, but...AMLO. Come again?!

Guadalajara Round-Up

The North American leaders summit in Guadalajara this weekend was, as The Pierces would surely agree, quite boring. Despite (or perhaps because of) disagreements regarding immigration and other topics (Calderón called the conversations "frank" in an interview yesterday, which in such a context is usually taken to mean something slightly less heated then "furious"), nothing too notable happened. Boz says this is a good thing:

Trade, security and combating H1N1 were clearly high on the agenda for all three leaders. However, in spite of the focus, there weren't any major new agreements or initiatives announced. That's not necessarily a bad thing. As I wrote yesterday, it can be seen as a positive sign that there is an uneventful ongoing dialogue within North America on key issues that doesn't need exciting new initiatives announced at every meeting.

I basically agree, for reasons I will lay out at a future date. Boz also said that the media once again failed to note the environmental like-mindedness among the leaders, and the potential for progress in the future.

(The above title sounds like a Grateful Dead song, or maybe I'm just thinking of Mexicali Blues.)

Mexico's Jails

The NY Times has a pretty good piece about the convicts (quite literally) running the prisons in Mexico, and how extradition is being used to combat it. One issue: somehow the piece manages to not mention Osiel Cárdenas. I guess he's kind of dated now, but one of the decade's most notorious traffickers running his empire from jail for close to four years would seem to be relevant. For that matter, nor does Mexico's most famous escapee, Chapo Guzmán, appear in the article. Otherwise, good stuff.

Calderón's Dare

In response to recent attacks on Mexico's human rights record, Calderón challenged critics to prove one single case of abuse by government officials. That's an odd tactic, given the raft of detailed evidence demonstrating, at the very least, periodic violations. The reason there isn't "proof" in the legal sense is that the trials of military officials are conducted in military courts, which are structurally designed to not convict soldiers for abuses. Calderón comes across like a hit man who cynically mocks the DA for not having a shred of proof, because, of course, he well knows that the proof is at the bottom of a river. He may be right that there is no proof, but he's the president, not a two-bit hoodlum looking to beat a charge; given the breadth of the accusations, the burden of proof is on his administration. The burden of response is as well; simple and implausible denials don't inspire much confidence that his government is prepared to address this.

One Last Election Post-op

The only one that matters.

Economic Polling

Lots of numbers from BGC in today's Excélsior: 55 percent of those surveyed say that the economy is bad or very bad, an increase of four points since last December. Oddly, 56 percent said they supported the measures taken by Calderón, while, in response to another question, 63 percent said that the president hasn't done as much as they expected to confront the crisis, compared to 34 who said that he had. And yet another question along those hit the mid-point between those two figures: 47 percent said that his policies were adequate, with 45 percent saying the opposite. Seventy-three percent said that the economy was worse off today than a year ago, one of the highest such results of Calderón's presidency. However, during the worst of the '95 crisis, the corresponding figure was 93 percent.

One last answer that encourages us to have a healthy skepticism for the analytical skills of those polled: only 2 percent said that the cause of the Mexican crisis was the worldwide crisis, with another 3 percent blaming the US. At the same time, 52 percent chalked it up to the federal government, Calderón, or bad politicians. 

Another Laudable Act from the Supreme Court

One of the justices, José Ramón Cossío, is talking about removing the fuero that keeps cases of military abuse out of civilian courts. As Human Rights Watch pointed out in a recent report, the problem with the military trying their own is, not unpredictably, that the legal system is set up to find soldiers and sailors not guilty. Hopefully Cossío's proposal gets off the ground. Whatever the case, did someone change the water at the Supreme Court or what? This is the third noble, people-over-the-powerful act in less than a week, from an institution not generally associated with such behavior.

Breaking Bones

The police in León, famous for using a suspect as a wrestling dummy, operating a tortue school, and having cops doubling as organized crime figures, have a new scandal on their hands: evidently, local officers are sending citizens to the hospital with injuries from sticks and stones.

On the Parties' Infighting

Here's my take.

Confirmation of What We Suspected

The Mexican ambassador to the US says that immigration reform isn't in the cards right now. The earliest that Arturo Sarukhán sees comprehensive immigration being passed is in the period from November 2009 to March 2010. I wonder, supposing health care is passed this fall and Obama's approval numbers are down below 50 percent thanks to the bruising fight to get it passed, would he be willing to take up another divisive issue that will drive a certain slice of independents away from him? I say "wonder", but I mean, "suspect he won't". If the economy doesn't rebound and Obama has a hard reelection fight on his hands, I think it's conceivable that the White House won't take up the issue until his second term.

Update: Obama says the same. (H/T)

Assassination Attempt?

The SSP detained a gunman in Culiacán yesterday whom they allege had plans to assassinate Felipe Calderón. The gunman was said to be a member of Chapo Guzmán's gang.

Not Satisfied

Vicente Fox second-guesses the choice of PAN president, saying that the party should have selected someone with more experience and maturity. Much as Fox bothers me, I actually think that's a reasonable point, but it's pretty hard to separate the reasonableness of that comment from the sour grapes infighting from Fox's gang over the past six weeks.

Nava's Reign

After the vote at the PAN convention yesterday, the tenure of Calderón's former secretary at the head of his party is now official. Despite all the dissatisfaction from Creel and the gang, César Nava won 290 of 329 total votes cast, just under 90 percent. His inaugural speech fittingly focused on the need for party unity. Bajo Reserva reports that the day before the vote, Nava and one of his chief opponents, Manuel Espino, sat through an icy meal together at a Mexico City restaurant, in which each man laid out his position on the PAN presidency but little common ground was reached. 

El Universal on the Supreme Court

Like Gancho, (one of) Mexico's paper(s) of record likes what it saw from the Supreme Court this week: 

Yesterday, in this space, we celebrated the decision of the highest court to liberate 40 innocents, jailed 11 years ago by a fabrication of evidence from the PGR.

[Break]

Responding to the demand for justice from the parents that lost their children in the day-care center is also a sign that there is someone in the Mexican state capable of assuming responsibility. 

The most relevant thing is that the justices have taken up the issue from a perspective of reason and empathy with the citizens, central elements for constructing a public space in a democracy. Should it continue this tendency toward social sensibility would open a new era in the relationship between judges and the people. An opportunity for the highest court in the land, head of the judicial branch, achieves a closeness --nonexistent before the present episode-- with the population. 

This rapprochement between the judges and the population can come about only if the justices maintain their decisions and their daily behaviors according to the common good, above when it is convenient for the powers and the powerful. Let's hope that this time the Court's faculty of investigation delivers the expected fruits. 

Huge Lab

The army discovered the biggest drug-producing facility ever found in Mexico in Durango this week. It was built over 500 acres in the Sierra Madre region, and had 164 200-liter vats used for making meth. 

Mustering the American Side

Bob Bradley has announced the members of the US team for the August 12 showdown in Mexico City. Not a lot of surprises; I suppose the two semi-big absences are Freddy Adu, who didn't play a whole lot in South Africa, and DeMarcus Beasley, who I believe remained parked on the bench the entire tournament after his big corner screwup. 

Also, the Mexican media is having a good chuckle at the fact that Obama declined to bet on the Americans winning the August 12 matchup.

Big Week for the Supreme Court

The Supreme Court has historically been known seen as something of a political pawn here in Mexico (witness its rulings in the Lydia Cacho/Mario Marín case in 2007 for a recent example), but two decisions this week show both independence and wisdom: in the first, the Court ordered the release of 40 Chiapas residents who'd evidently been railroaded into prison after a massacre in 1997. The soon-to-be-released, who were serving 20 and 40-year sentences, were all indigenous. Second, the Court announced the formation of a commission tasked with the investigation into the ABC day-care that killed almost 50 toddlers in June, as well as the national day-care system. 

Controversial Comments

It's hard to know if Rafa Márquez's recent praise of the US soccer program was meant as a thumb in the eye to the guys running Femexfut, or if it was the transparent old Lou Holtz trick of exaggeratedly kissing the rear of the next team on the schedule. Whatever the case, Mexico's most prominent player hailing the lack of turnover in the US coaching job (just two coaches in ten years) has raised eyebrows here, what with Mexico's five coaches in three years. 

Obama and the Mexican Army Abuses

Denise Dresser makes a good case for Obama pressuring Calderón on rights abuses in today's LA Times, acknowledging the president's successes, but pointing out that they come at the expense of human rights:

The war on drugs is turning into a war on the civilian population that can't simply be dismissed as collateral damage. Mexico's military is capturing "capos," but it's also raping, extracting confessions through torture and detaining people arbitrarily. Crime is begetting more crime.

She goes on to say that Obama should withold Mérida money absent some pledges from Calderón: 

Until Mexico makes real progress where human rights are concerned, the U.S. Congress should withhold future funding for the Merida Initiative. Unless Calderon agrees to place military officials who violate human rights under the jurisdiction of civilian courts, U.S. support will perpetuate the status quo.

This is a tricky stance, because it puts the relationship with the Calderón government at risk (although the risk could be mitigated somewhat if Obama handles the issue quietly), and puts the US in the position of bullying an ally on its internal affairs (albeit in the service of a good cause). Furthermore, if Calderón calls our bluff, the issue becomes fodder for Mexican nationalists, and the Mérida Initiative comes to a crashing halt, the US will throw away any ability it presently has to influence Mexico's military. At the same time, with violations on the rise and the army playing what appears to be a long-term role in fighting organized crime, the US shouldn't be pledging billions to a support a decade of increased abuse and impunity. If he brings it up, I think Obama should treat this not only as a human rights issue, which makes the US come off as a hypocritical scold, but an issue of effectiveness: Mexican soldiers will be better crime-fighters if they are constrained by some semblance of law and order. 

DF Prosecutor Admits Error

So this would seem to settle it: the Mexico City procurador says the man originally accused by his office of masterminding the kidnapping of Fernando Martí had nothing to do with it. 

Agenda for the Leaders Summit

In a huge surprise to anyone who follows North American relations, immigration and security are to be the topics dominating this weekends meeting in Guadalajara. This should score Obama some points on the first issue. And this will likely make things a little prickly between Harper and Calderón. This has to be the first time in recorded history that Mexico is more frustrated with Canada over immigration than the US. 

Update: Carlos Navarrete implores Calderón to make the economic crisis a topic at the summit. 

Face to the Name

The above is said (by the SSP) to be a recent photograph of Servando Gómez, or La Tuta, boss of La Familia. I know the days of the stereotypical gold-encrusted kingpin are long gone, but he sure doesn't look the part, does he?

Pessimism for the PRD

Alfonso Zárate doesn't like what he's seen from the PRD in the weeks since the election: 

Jesús Ortega is the steward of the breakdown; a moral, political, and economic breakdown that expressed itself electorally in the painful fourth place in the first and second electoral regions (after the Green Party). In Sinaloa, Nuevo León, and Aguascalientes, the PRD finished behind the Green Party and Panal, and in Campeche, in sixth place. 

But in response to such a disaster, simulation: Jesús Ortega doesn't resign nor does he dare to expel he who caused more damage in the July 5 election than anyone. López Obrador labored underhandedly, conducting a true counter-campaign that contributes to the explanation of the difficult PRD defeat in the state of Mexico.

The letter from Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas establishing the conditions for the re-foundation of the party that he contributed to founding: the expulsion of López Obrador and the resignation of Jesús Ortega, merely received dismissals from both trenches, that of the Peje and the Chuchos. 

In short, they can't make a clean break with the players collectively responsible for debacle. I guess the bet is that the debacle will force the PRD's various factions to play nice, and therefore improve its fortunes in future elections, whereas an expulsion of AMLO would lead to implosion. 

Zárate adds: 

[N]othing happened in the meeting of the seventh National Council in Morelia, they couldn't even agree on the election of a parliamentary coordinator. In the PRD's present state of confusion, the Chuchos proposed Encinas, apparently distanced from Andrés Manuel's inner circle, but sectors of the United Left of Bejarano don't want him; their "rooster" is Agustín Guerrero, because he's one of their own. 

That's the first I've read about Encinas drifting from AMLO. Whatever the case, I'm actually not convinced that the PRD isn't learning from the defeat. Without denying the problems Zárate is addressing, there seem to be some positive noises seeping out of perredista-landia.