Chickens Roosting

Alejandro Meneses wrote about some disturbing signs for John McCain (and reasons for optimism in the Obama camp) in yesterday's El Universal. A few salient stats: 78 percent of Hispanic primary votes were tabulated in Democratic contests. The total Hispanic voting base now represents 15 percent of the electorate, compared with 9 percent in 2004. There will be 12 million Hispanic voters in the November race, an increase of 4 million from 2004. In 2006, a majority of Hispanic voters said immigration was motivating their vote. Bush carried 35 percent of Hispanics in 2000, and 40 percent in 2004, and they were vital to his victory in both years. After the Republicans' shameful immigration scaremongering in the past four years, it seems unlikely that McCain will be able to best W's numbers. 

The traditional demographic groups are bound to be a little mixed up this November, so maybe McCain doesn't need as many Hispanic votes as Bush did. But then, a lot of that reshuffling is going to leave McCain without voters that have typically been pro-Republican (traditional conservatives, evangelicals), so maybe he needs to not only match Bush, but outperform him. McCain is somewhat stronger than the rest of the Republican candidates would have been, given his sponsorship of a sensible immigration bill and his resistance of his party's immigration loons. Then again, he backed away from his support for migrants during the Republican primary season, and he has tried to distance himself from his own bill. His past stance has been replaced by a much more cautious, loon-friendly approach, which will probably leave Hispanics cold, despite McCain's past positions. 

In any event, the futility of the Republicans' alienating the fastest growing segment of the population was all-too-obvious a few years ago. Handing the rhetorical leadership on the issue to Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo was a monumentally stupid error. The political realities of the Republican Party in the 21st century forced McCain to the right during the primaries, and he and the party will likely suffer as a result. It may not be fair to McCain, but the chickens are coming home. Y'know, to roost. (I had to do something to mix up such a cliché.)