Thursday, June 26, 2008

Concentration

Felipe Calderón says that 65 percent of Mexico's drug violence is concentrated in two states: Chihuahua and Sinaloa. Whatever the exact percentage, there's no question that two states are the country's most violent right now.

Two points leap to mind: why doesn't Calderón send a larger troop deployment to the two states? If drug violence is so concentrated, shouldn't be easier to combat? I'm not suggesting that he's wrong for not sending more troops, but honestly asking out of curiosity. If the number of soldiers in each state was tripled, the narcos would probably hot-tail it to another place, or at least lay low for a while. Violence would almost certainly go down, though it would go up elsewhere. Does the government perhaps think that the different cartel groups need to fight it out now and get it over with?

Also, the rising overall level of violence in Mexico masks the regional swings. A year ago, Monterrey was one of the most violent cities in the country, after years of enjoying the reputation as Mexico's safest metropolis. Two years ago, Nuevo Laredo was Mexico's Baghdad. Now, both are much quieter.

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