Tuesday, November 15, 2011
As Rumored, It's AMLO
The leftist candidate for the 2012 presidency is the same as the leftist candidate in 2006: AMLO. I will look forward to have a reason to say el Peje more frequently over the next several months, so that's a positive. But I fully expect him to get crushed, and I am disappointed that the Mexican left thinks that he deserves another run.
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I share your sentiment, but it's not the Mexican left who chose him. Most leftist Mexicans had a preference for Ebrard to begin with. The fact that AMLO was chosen says more about his party: the PRD allowed itself to be hijacked by a AMLO's disloyal, anti-democratic ego and will suffer for it badly. I'm almost inclined to say: RIP The Mexican Left (1988-2012).
I dunno if I'd go that far. Or rather, I'd say it's a temporary hiatus, and one that probably began in 2006. I almost wonder if the change will need to be generational...the voters who, after everything, continue to drive AMLO and his brand of politics will have to die of and be replaced by a younger, more sensible cohort.
Are the "Arab Spring" movements, or the "#occupy" movements in the United States and the European protesters, "the Left"? Is democracy only a matter of ballot boxes and (probably rigged) elections?
And is AMLO more a leftist or a populist?
IN 1999-2000, AMLO was tagged as a "left-wing populist" and there was a lot of talk (including studies by the Southern Command in the U.S.) on the supposed dangers of "leftist" populism. Interesting to see him defining his platform in broader terms, including "Christian ethics" on Joaquin López-Doriga's evening news show tonight. THAT, along with spending the last several years building a decent nation-wide organization (largely out of media scrutiny), and his "make nice" statements recently in the U.S. haven't really changed his platform, only the presentation... and who knows? He's a master politico and could very well pull it off.
Personally I don't see AMLO as much of a leftist.
As far as pulling it off, you mean the election? He'd need EPN to get caught in the worst scandal ever and the PAN to nominate Cordero. Otherwise, I don't see that happening. He couldnt pull if off in 06 with much lower negatives and against much weaker opposition. And no one new is voting for him this time around.
As far as being a master politico, I think that's debatable too. He certainly showed horrible political judgment in a number of key moments in 06, such as skipping the first debate and camping out along la reforma for two months.
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