Thursday, July 9, 2009

Good Summary

The Mexico Institute has a nice post-op of Sunday's elections available here.

Two (very minor) quibbles: first, the article calls Monterrey the nation's most important economic center. You hear that a lot, but it's not true. Mexico City's GDP, eighth largest in the world measured in purchasing power parity, is five times the size of Monterrey's. Some six times more people live in the Mexico City region than in Monterrey. Mexico City is also home to the nation's Central Bank, stock market, economic decision-makers, and many of the nation's most important industrialists (though Monterrey has a bunch as well).

Second, it says the economy may contract by as much as 3 to 6 percent this year. Given that Carstens is predicting a 5.5 percent decline and he's been overly optimistic throughout the crisis, I'd say it's a virtual certainty that the GDP shrinks by more than 6 percent.

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