Mitofsky Measures the Possibilities

Surprising no one, the latest numbers from one of Mexico's most esteemed pollsters favor Enrique Peña Nieto: he is the preferred candidate for 66 percent of the priístas, followed by Beatriz Paredes (10 percent), recently surging Fidel Herrera (8 percent), and Manlio Fabio Beltrones (4 percent). Among the PAN, the top three are Santiago Creel (26 percent), Josefina Vázquez (13 percent), and Fernando Gómez Mont (9 percent). Among the PRD, AMLO leads Ebrard 52 to 29 percent.

That's a surprisingly positive number for AMLO, although another piece of data is far more indicative of his eventual chances in a general election: he has a negative 21 percent net approval rating, the only major contender (aside from Creel, who came in at minus 2) in the red. In contrast, Peña Nieto's net rating is plus 35 percent. I fully expect Peña Nieto's figure to drop once people get to know him a little better and the shine dims a bit. However, people already know AMLO pretty well; it's hard to imagine too many of those unfriendly to the Tabascan changing their views once the elections approaches and they are exposed to him a little more. Especially given the fact that his rhetoric is more heated this time around.