La Familia Splitting Up?

Via Boz, La Familia, reaffirming its position as the weirdest gang in Mexico, has evidently offered to disband, with the caveat that the government increase security in Michoacán. The offer came via narcomanta and in an email to El Blog del Narco.

The government's reaction was, We cannot make deals with criminals. I understand and support that predisposition, but I think that was the wrong response here. Assuming the offer was genuine, it should have been something like, "Michoacán's security is very important to us, and we are always examining ways to improve security there, as across the nation. Former criminals who renounce their criminal groups run much less risk of being arrested or killed by security forces." After all, if you want the gang to disappear (which maybe the government doesn't, at least not in this way, because of the vacuum that would result), you have to give them some sort of olive branch.

Also, if they do break up, I wonder if they'd get back together for a reunion tour of bloodshed in like 15 years, when all of their solo efforts turned out to be less satisfying than they'd expected.

Update: Upon rereading, yesterday's reaction comes across as extremely credulous. I'd like to clarify that I don't think that all of the gang will demobilize, though I do think there's a possibility that the top level of gangsters really does want to retire. I also think there's a good chance that the offer was hooey. But I don't think the government loses anything with something like the response I outlined, and many big-time traffickers have historically sought an easy, non-violent way out of the trap their life has become. If there is a chance that this message is legitimate and sincere, the government can and should subtly encourage their retirement without sitting down to negotiate.

The Lamest Form of Political Horn-Tooting

With all of my being, I loath the political tactic, common among mayors and governors in Mexico, of ostensibly demonstrating success by simply pointing to a large number of tasks accomplished, with very scant attention to the quality of the tasks. The problem, of course, is that you can lower the bar enough so that not appearing before the cameras with toilet paper covering shaving cuts is an accomplishment, and leave office with six million compromisos cumplidos. That wouldn't, of course, make your tenure a successful one, because often in governing, one legitimately big accomplishment --say, balancing the budget, or reforming the police-- is worth more than millions of small ones. I thought of all this when I saw this fawning story about Enrique Peña Nieto's reaching the 508 pledges fulfilled. Quite the milestone.

Ex-mayor José Ángel Pérez was a big proponent of this approach in Torreón. I believe his big opening was 100 public works in his first 100 days. However, you'd be hard pressed to point to eight public building projects that were more complicated than a series of speed bumps, and as I've discussed in the past, the more complicated ones seemed needlessly costly and complicated. It's also noteworthy that despite his 100 projects, Pérez left office widely considered a failure.

Military Aid to Mexico

Via Boz, The Washington Post on increased aid to the Mexican military:

The U.S. military has begun to work closely with Mexico's armed forces, sharing information and training soldiers in an expanding effort to help that country battle its violent drug cartels, according to U.S. and Mexican officials.

U.S. military officials have been hesitant to discuss publicly their growing ties with Mexico, for fear of triggering a backlash among a Mexican public wary of interference. But current and former officials say the U.S. military has instructed hundreds of Mexican officers in the past two years in subjects such as how to plan military operations, use intelligence to hunt traffickers and observe human rights.

The Pentagon's counternarcotics funding for Mexico has nearly tripled, from $12.2 million in 2008 to more than $34 million in 2010, according to estimates by the Government Accountability Office.

This doesn't really surprise me that much, given the increase in visits by American military brass to Mexico in the past couple of years, from Gates on down. Boz has some interesting commentary on the subject as well:

In any conversation about US military aid to Mexico, someone will immediately remark about how the Mexican public will oppose military aid because of the historical tensions. It's a mandatory line in any article about this issue. This leads to three possible conclusions:

1. Don't do it.
2. Do it, defend the policy publicly and accept the criticism.
3. Do it and don't talk about it.

I know lots of commentators who believe the first option. I happen to be a supporter of the second option, believing that military aid is important but an abundance of transparency should come with that aid, even if it means facing criticism. Mexico is a democracy and their president or Congress can reject the aid. If they accept it and the public disagrees, they can vote differently next election. If controversial military aid is going to be provided, this is a debate that needs to occur publicly and with some level of accountability. The US officials providing the aid and the Mexican officials receiving it should be willing and even eager to discuss the issue in public.

I tend to agree, and I'd also say that fears of Mexican nationalism are often stronger than the nationalism itself. Obviously, Mexicans don't want the 82nd Airborne patrolling in Zacatecas, but I think the number of people who are going to be truly apoplectic about this, and not just trying to make political hay, is pretty limited. I know people in the States assume Mexicans are permanently scarred by the Mexican War and therefore extremely distrustful of all things having to do with the US, especially its government. The Mexican War and the loss of territory certainly plays a big role in kids' history lessons growing up, and there's an element of lingering fear, but Mexicans increasingly have first-hand knowledge of the US that weighs much more heavily than events that they know only from classes. In my experience (which was in the North, which could affect my thinking) your average Mexican isn't much different than your average non-American in his views toward the US and its military, which is to say, once again, that no one wants American troops on Mexican streets, but $35 million in aid and some limited training programs aren't going to spark a popular uprising. That's not to say that there aren't risks, but the Mexican public is completely capable of concluding that the benefits (i.e., greater capacity to take down drug traffickers, perhaps evidenced by the Mexican marines' long and successful hunts for Tony Tormenta and Arturo Beltrán Leyva) outweigh the risks.

New Group

The marines report that the group of toughs protecting Tony Tormenta was known as the Scorpions, which is certainly sinister, though we prefer our gang names with a bit more obliqueness. La Línea, or Los Zetas, for example. After all, if you have to conspicuously call attention to your dangerousness, then you're probably not that dangerous. Anyway, we'll see if this group disappears or if they emerge as a name that continues to play a role in Tamaulipas and beyond.

Why World Leaders Shouldn't Use Twitter

There's lots of reasons, actually, but Calderón's embarrassing reference to the slain mayor-elect Gregorio Barradas, in which he calls him "Gerardo", is a pretty good one. Just like Vicente Fox's fumbled felicidades to Mario Vargas Llosa, in which he screwed up the list of Latin American Nobel winners. We don't need the filter between politician's brain and our ears completely removed. Neither of the above mistakes says much about either Fox's or Calderón's fitness to govern, but each makes the man seem smaller.

Bad Archbishop

A federal judge has issued a warrant for the detention of Onésimo Cepeda, the loony archbishop of Ecatepec about whom we wrote here, for fraud, regarding a bad loan of $130 million. The judge is located in DF, which will give Cepeda an obvious excuse: it's all because Marcelo Ebrard hates him.

Should he be found guilty, I wonder how this would effect the Transparency International rankings. Do they take dirty priests into account?

A Popular Pledge

Enrique Peña Nieto has proposed social security for everyone in Mexico (today it is limited to people who work in the formal sector). That's bound to be a popular idea, and in the long term, it is a good one, too; it's hard for Mexico to consider itself part of the developed world when the barest of social safety nets are denied to most of the nation. However, the timing of the proposal is interesting, in that we learned last week that IMSS is on the brink of bankruptcy. I guess this could be a policy ju jitsu move, in which the reforms needed to insure the solvency of the institution are also used to radically expand its breadth, but I didn't read anything in the article suggesting that such was his argument.

Consequences of Tony Tormenta's Death

The organization is now in the hands of El Coss, Eduardo Costilla, and Mario Cárdenas Guillén, Tony and Osiel's brother. Although my understanding is that Costilla didn't really ascend as a result of last week's killing; he already was a major leader.

Also, there is speculation that this is good news for the Zetas, which it probably is, though it's always very difficult to predict the exact ramifications of any episode in an industry where everyone hides their activities.

Marine high-ups are saying that they were on Ezequiel Cárdenas' trail for six months, which is a lot like what they said after they killed Arturo Beltrán Leyva. One wonders if it's all talk, or if they are just a lot better at doing the painstaking tracking that works against the capos. If so, that institutional knowledge should be exported.

Criminal PR

Interesting piece from Mike O'Connor, of the Committee to Protect Journalists, about the Zetas PR efforts in Tamaulipas:

The press releases began arriving about four months ago, she said. They come by email, often including photos, to a police reporter who, it is assumed for bribes, is the Zeta liaison with the press, Lopez said. The reporter sends them on to other reporters who file them to their papers.

There are two editorial lines in the press releases. According to Lopez, the Zetas write their “stories” to make the Mexican army look bad. The army is deployed in the state to help fight the Zetas. So the Zetas send stories about army human rights abuses. “Some of those stories are accurate in a small way, but they are exaggerated. Sometimes they are not true,” Lopez said.

And, then, Lopez said, the Zetas want to make the local police look good. “They protect the police because the police are their allies,” she said. “We get stories about how the police or the chief are so wonderful, especially the chief.”

At first, Lopez said, there were three or four news releases a month. Now it's two or three a week, and the releases are reaching into the society pages. Recently, there was one about the birthday party of a 5-year-old boy, apparently the son of someone high in the gang.

A similar, though not so novel, example of gangs focusing on their PR: Carlos Montemayor, La Barbie's alleged criminal heir, released a statement saying his group had nothing to do with the 20 murdered Michoacanos in Acapulco.

Impunity

Studies revealing the rates of impunity in Mexico are not uncommon, and this new one from the Tec de Monterrey has nothing particularly shocking: only 1 percent of the crimes committed in Mexico, including both federal and state cases, result in convictions. That indicates a ton of problems both in apprehending and processing criminals, obviously. But this stat indicates that citizens, either because of fear or lack of faith in the criminal justice system, aren't doing much either: only 22 percent of crimes are even reported to the authorities.

Curfew?

Excélsior says that the fighting in Matamoros that followed the arrest of Tony Tormenta led to a curfew in Brownsville, the American town across the border. As far as I know, that's not particularly common.

Update: Or perhaps not. Gtodon points out in comments that there is nothing on the story on the news wires, and that someone from Brownsville is denying the news in the comments below the Excélsior piece.

Narcobloqueos Outside of the Northeast

After the arrest of some La Familia big shots, their allies in Morelia copied the tactic, pioneered in the Monterrey area, of setting up blockades around the city. Evidently, the goal, which was not achieved, was to rescue the arrested.

Elect a Shady Politician and Shady Things Ensue

The security chief of Mauricio Fernández, the San Pedro mayor best known for the recordings of him seemingly talking about his deals with the Beltrán Leyvas and his disclosure of the execution of a San Pedro bad guy hours before the body was found, was murdered earlier this week. Fernández denied that the murder was a personal threat, and emphasized the tranquility in his city.

The PAN's Best Hope

Via Aguachile, Josefina Vázquez has a very dignified, one might even say presidential, new website.

Big News

Malcolm Beith reports that Tony Tormenta, Osiel Cárdenas' brother and one of the protagonists in all of the fighting in the Northeast these last several months, has been killed. No word by whom.

Update: El Universal is reporting that he was killed by the marines in Matamoros.

From Anonymous Miners to National Heroes to the Inspiration for Porn

As you might have deduced from the title, everyone's favorite feel-good story is coming soon to a Chilean theater, but not the sort of theater you'd want your kids to hang out in, should you happen to be in Santiago. The actress (not sure how they are going to fit a woman into that scenario, but one imagines that's not an insuperable obstacle) starring in the film: Ana Karenina. Tolstoy would be proud.

The PRI's Next President

If Paredes and Peña have their way, it'll be Humberto Moreira. That would seem to be a strong enough pair as to make defeat unlikely. This is a sensible move for everyone involved. I speculated at some point that Moreira could be a potential adversary for Peña in 2012, should the State of Mexico race go against the PRI in 2011. Supporting Moreira seems a cagey way for Moreira to head that possibility off, unlikely though it may seem. And now Moreira, who's quite young, positions himself to be a logical candidate in 2018 (never too early!).

Bodies Found

Eighteen of the bodies of 20 Michoacanos kidnapped last month have been discovered (we think) in a mass grave in Acapulco. More info from the AP:

Before the first two bodies were found, a video posted on YouTube showed two men _ their hands apparently tied behind their backs _ telling an unseen interrogator that they killed "the Michoacanos" and buried them in the area.

The two bodies found by police were wearing the same clothes as the pair seen in the video and were lying atop the mass grave.

A sign left between the two men read: "The people they killed are buried here." It was signed by Acapulco's Independent Cartel _ a little known drug gang that has been claiming responsibility for killings in the area over the past two months.

The group is believed to be a breakaway faction of the Beltran Leyva gang, whose top leaders have recently been killed or captured. The men interrogated in the video appear to be members of a rival faction.

This new gang may be the same as the Pacific South Cartel, but if not, that makes two new groups trying to emerge from the ashes of Beltrán's network.

Also, the body of the brother of ex-Chihuahua prosecutor Patricia González has been found, and eight of his alleged captors have been arrested as well.

Just a Guess

The BBC on a big anti-drug operation in the US:

Police in the United States have arrested 45 people they accuse of belonging to the Mexican drug cartel La Familia Michoacana.

Agents also seized cash, guns and drugs as part of their operation against the cell, based in Atlanta, Georgia.

This is just a hunch, as I've read nothing, but I suspect that the vast majority of those arrested were American citizens who are only marginally closer to La Tuta and the rest of the hierarchy than you or I.

Mexican Humans Slightly More Developed in 2010

The new UN Human Development Index has been released, and Mexico has added .005 points to its index, giving it a total of 0.75, good enough for number 56 in the world. The nation remains above the world and the Latin American average, which are .624 and .706, respectively. Despite a decade of unspectacular growth, including one year of spectacular decline, Mexico's HDI has risen steadily throughout the past decade, starting at .698 in 2000. One major hurdle to further improvements, the authors say, is education.

Mexican Auto Industry Triumphalism

While on a swing through Coahuila the other day, Calderón said that Mexico was a world champ in the auto industry. It's true that triumphal comments from any president should be taken with a grain of salt, and Calderón probably more than most, yet a recent FT piece makes you think that he may be onto something:

Automobile production has taken off in Mexico this year as the country recovers from its worst recession last year since 1932. Car exports to September reached 1.4m units, up 71.2 per cent on last year and 10.5 per cent on 2008, the best year on record.

[Break]

The growth has come mainly in so-called “compact” and “sub-compact” vehicles as manufacturers discover that Mexico offers one of the best export platforms to meet global consumers’ increasing preference for smaller, cheaper cars.

In addition to VW’s $1bn investment to develop and produce the new Jetta in Mexico, Ford this year turned its Cuautitlán stamping and assembly truck plant into a production facility for its Fiesta compact model, which it will sell in North America.

Since 2008 Ford has invested about $3bn in Mexico, including a 25,800 sq m expansion at Cuautitlán with its five new lines of presses and 270 robots, a new diesel-engine plant in the northern state of Chihuahua and a new plant to supply automatic transmissions for the new Fiesta.

[Break]

“You can produce an SUV anywhere in the world and make a profit but you can’t make a compact car anywhere,” said Mr Karig. “That is why Mexico has emerged as a global centre for producing small cars.”

Happy with Cali

Excélsior's large and triumphal headline about California's No to legalized weed in yesterday's edition was noteworthy.

Mexico's Newest Crime Wave

Evidently, thieves are targeting the wearers of luxury watches in Mexico City. Money quote:

Many residents already know that you have to be crazy to wear jewelry or watches because around here the robbery of such articles is common, despite the police presence.

Over/under before this gets turned into evidence of the worsening situation in Mexico in the American media: 17 days. (My money's on Fox News.) A possible lede for such a story:

The unwritten rule used to be that decapitations were fine, but an honorable kingpin didn't touch his victim's jewels. Now, in an unprecedented turn of events marking the descent of the nation under Felipe Calderón, a man's Rolex is no longer off limits.