Another Mayoral Killing

The latest was actually the murder of a mayoral-elect in Oaxaca. This disturbing trend seems to be expanding to more far-flung areas. Leo Zuckermann addressed the targeting of mayors in a column a couple of weeks ago.

What's going on? Why is organized crime assassinating more mayors? A pair of hypotheses occur to me.

The first is a method of organized crime sending a message to the governors they are confronting: "There are no untouchables; today, we kill mayors; tomorrow it could be higher-level authorities; better for you to cut it out before it's your turn."

The second hypothesis has more to do with the vulnerabilities of the mayors. The municipal police that don't have training or funds, but they are still an important element for organized crime's operations. It's common to hear stories from criminals that they go before mayors and offer them "silver or lead" so that they directly control the police command. If the mayors accept, they have to fulfill their compromise or, otherwise, they are killed. And if they don't accept, then they are killed, and maybe their families too.

These two hypothesis don't appear mutually exclusive. One odd thing about this rash of killings has been its lack of a geographic pattern. A lot of have been in the Northeast, but there have also been killings in Michoacán, and now Oaxaca, which isn't typically referred to as a hotbed of organized crime activity.

Vetting

From Under the Volcano, Reforma reported a couple of weeks ago that the much-heralded vetting programs for Mexico's cops are not being utilized, with only 22 percent of the nation's police having been submitted to such controls. The group with the highest proportion of vetted cops are the federales, with 49 percent. The number drops to 34 percent with the municipal cops, and 8 percent with the state police.

This is another example of a high-minded idea being undermined by a subsequent lack of will at the level of implementation. Increased vetting and monitoring of cops would be a great thing, and could be an important part of a safer Mexico, but not if no one is actually making sure that the improvements mandated from the top are actually installed at the bottom. I had a similar reaction to the judicial reform in 2008: it's all well and good, but it doesn't mean that the hundreds of thousands of security officials in Mexico are all going to be working toward a common goal. I don't know what the answer to this problem is, other than a lot of patience and persistence.

Ugly Finding

Ugh. La Laguna continues its nasty trajectory, with latest iteration being a mass grave in Pedro, said to house the remains of several kidnapping victims. No word on how many people's remains are there.

It's On

The PRD has approved the alliance with the PAN in the state of Mexico. AMLO has, once more, rejected the scheme. It's hard to know how this will play out, but given that he'll surely take a lot of voters with him, I have a feeling Peña Nieto's "dolphin" will end up taking this one. As both Carlos Loret and I (and surely many others) have pointed out, despite training much of his fire on Peña Nieto for the past few years, AMLO is doing more to help in the state of Mexico than anyone.

Future of the Court

Ana Paula Ordorica worries that the replacement to José de Jesús Gudiño, the Supreme Court justice who died suddenly of a heart attack several weeks ago, will turn the Court away from the nonpartisanship it embraced with its most recently arrived justices:

When Justice Zaldívar [who's been a justice since December 2009] presented his findings for the ABC day-care case, at no point was it said that his point of view, that when he described as a generalized disorder in the day-care system in the country and as a result requested the resignation of various officials, among them Juan Molinar Horcasitas, was an observation biased by political affinities.

It was his vision as a jurist and only that. Which should be applauded and conserved. Whether or not you agree with is finding.

But now that President Calderón must send a trio of new nominees to the Senate so that they can select the justice to occupy the seat that Gudiño has left empty, and it's very likely that the naming process is again politicized.

Senator Beltrones, leader of the PRI in the upper chamber, holds the floor. He can use his influence so that a minister favorable to his party is installed, for example Jorge Moreno Collado, or one with ample judicial credentials and without political or partisan leanings.

Eeeeuuuuuuwww!

The governor of Jalisco, staunch conservative Emilio González, says that gay marriages give him "asquito", which is a local idiom for saying that he thinks they're gross. But it's an idiom that sounds best coming from the mouth of an eight-year-old girl talking about the prospect of smooching a fourth-grader, whereas it comes across as kind of odd from a politician making a case for one position or another.

Where Colombia Maybe Can Offer Some Prescriptions for Mexico

Isaac Lee, founder of Poder, argues that Colombia presents a model for how to protect a free press despite threats from organized crime:

In November 1999, three months after Garzón's murder, 32 media executives signed an agreement designed to improve the quality of press coverage of drug-related violence around the country. This attitude was fundamental in helping Colombia reach a consensus on the need to fight drug trafficking and criminal enterprise. There was never any doubt as to what had to be done on the part of the government, the media establishment (this is, the owners and editors of major magazines and newspapers, the most important columnists, and TV networks), or the private sector: Keep on condemning the wrongdoings of the drug traffickers, no matter how harsh the consequences.

The effectiveness of the international war on drugs is debatable. But that uncertainty has not prevented Colombian society from rejecting terror as a means of gaining power. The government must understand that when a member of the press is attacked, society at large is attacked; therefore, defending the media must be a priority. This means that the upmost diligence should be applied to all investigations, prosecutions, and the sentencing of the perpetrators in such cases. And, not only should the president allot as many resources as are necessary for the job, but the highest degree of his political will and accountability should be invested in the enterprise. Journalists, for their part, must remember that the power that comes with getting published and being heard is much more of a responsibility than a privilege.

Periods of crisis such as the ones experienced in Colombia—and now in Mexico—are not the time for doubt or division, but rather for the authorities, the media, and the private sector to join forces and work toward a better future. That should be the lesson of Colombia's terrible recent history.

That part about continuing to condemn the wrongs despite the consequences hasn't happened in Mexico, and I do wonder if it occurred quite as universally in Colombia as he describes. But even if it didn't, the Mexican press and the society at large could certainly present a more unified front in standing up to criminals, but it seems unlikely without a corresponding commitment from the government to investigate and punish crimes against journalists.

Euthanasia in Mexico

The number of Mexicans who've taken advantage of the legalization of euthanasia in Mexico City two years ago is 497. Another 27 began the process but didn't go through with it.

The Massacre's Chilling Effect

Newswire EFE says that the murder of 72 immigrants last month in Tamaulipas has tamped down on northward immigration through Mexico, as fearful potential migrants either stay home or look for other routes. The reporters talked to one guy who runs a hotel that caters to migrants who said that his clientele is down roughly two-thirds since the incident.

Threatening a Veto

Calderón is saying that he will consider vetoing the revenue portion of the budget if the IVA is lowered, as is being discussed. Just "consider" mind you; he's not promising to veto anything. It's odd how small a role the veto plays in Mexican politics, despite a perennially divided Congress. In the US, in contrast, the veto is a hugely effective and often frequently employed tool once the president's party loses Congress. When the PRI was looking like a sure thing to take the Chamber or Deputies, the prevailing narrative was that Calderón is done, the PRI will force everything onto him. Calderón's hands definitely were tied a little tighter as a result of 2009's elections, but it wasn't like the PRI was going to be able to accomplish everything it wanted just because it had (with its coalition parties) the slimmest of majorities. The veto (to say nothing of the PRI's third-party status in the Senate) was almost totally ignored in this logic, for whatever reason. I don't know if it's a product of 70 years of one-party domination, a deeper cultural respect for the consensus, or whatever. Odd.

Onto the Congress

Calderón has a sent a unified police proposal to Congress. This idea has been kicked around with some intensity for months now. I offered my thoughts about the plan in August (short version: it's not a bad idea, but nor is it necessarily an improvement, and it doesn't address the real barriers to better police forces).

Milenio's headline for this story originally had Calderón promising that the unified police command would do away with crime in Mexico. They have since changed the headline, and even before they did, I felt reasonably certain that he made no such promise. The headline was an isolated bit of journalistic irresponsibility, but it was also a reflection of how inflated the hopes riding on the unified police are.

Turning the Tables

Aguachile mentioned how it was inappropriate for Calderón to return the Danger for Mexico topic, and reiterate its message once more. True enough, but it was also politically silly, as the skillful response from AMLO demonstrates:

...I have never called Calderón a danger for Mexico, despite the fact that 30,000 Mexicans have lost their lives thanks to his ineptitude and irresponsibility.

Not entirely fair, since Calderón isn't directly responsible for any of those deaths (at least, not as far as I know), and AMLO uses plenty of insults when discussing Calderón. Nonetheless, a pretty effective comback.

Deserved

Mario Vargas Llosa has won the Nobel. I never thought he'd win because of his politics, but maybe leaning right doesn't mean as much in the post-Bush area. Whatever your opinion about said politics, the guy knows how to string together a story. One thing I think he gets that many other highly respected novelists forget from time to time is that first and foremost, a novel is supposed to be enjoyable for the reader.

Confusing Picture of Monterrey

The divergent messages of two stories about Monterrey that I read this morning was jarring: the first, Nuevo León, long known as Mexico's economic heartland, is enjoying the strongest recovery with regard to job creation of any state in the country; the second, another splashy front-page story about a shootout in Monterrey, which has been a major center for drug violence for most of the year, thanks to the Gulf-Zetas split.

It'd be nice if the broader story behind the first piece of news will sooner or later mitigate the second. I'm not holding my breath, though. At some point, though, it'd be interesting to read a study of how much the economic crisis contributed to Mexico's spike in violence in 2009, and how much the recovery, weak though it may be, will do alleviate it.

Very Long-term Planning

Mexican officials were bragging up their issue of 100-year bonds today, which puts them in rarified air on the international financial scene. And while it's all well and good that Mexico is able to issue such bonds, I can't help but wonder why the hell would anyone buy them. I'm well aware that you can calculate the present value of future earnings, but even so, isn't the utility of any windfall after you die basically zero? I guess you could take some satisfaction in gifting some Mexican bonds to your kids, but then, if you buy them after they are born, chances are your kids will never be able to cash them in either. In fact, chances are that by the time you are in any position to purchase a significant number of 100-year bonds, even your grandkids wouldn't be able to receive any benefit from them until well into old age. This seems like a very logical question to me (though maybe there's an explanation I'm missing), but the Financial Times write-up of the bond issue made only the most tangential reference to it, with the following quote:

But not everyone was excited. “I’m not seeing investor interest yet in 50-100 year bonds. This might create a market, but I’m sceptical,” Pierre-Yves Bareau, global head of emerging market debt at JPMorgan Asset Management, told the Financial Times. “Given the illiquidity, there are better uses for investors’ cash.”

Ernesto Cordero's comments also make you wonder why this instrument exists.

The economic problems we are experiencing today have a solution, we are on a path for growth and in 100 years we'll be ready to pay the debts contracted.

Left unsaid is the point, But if we can't, it'll be someone else's problem. Furthermore, how can soothing people's fears about today's issues offer any indication of what will happen in 2070 or 2090 or 2105? The financial crisis fallout has about as much relevance to this bond's soundness as the debate over Free Silver does to today's financial regulation, which is to say, none.

It Feels Like 2006

Calderón talking about the "Danger for Mexico" ad, AMLO going on about the mafia that stole the presidency. It feels like nothing has changed.

Over the past few years, it seems as though AMLO fingers Carlos Salinas as the man behind all his misfortune with ever more frequency. No doubt Salinas retains a great deal of influence in some circles in Mexico, but Salinas is a private citizen and had been out of the presidency for 12 years when AMLO lost in 2006. The way AMLO constantly moans about him, he sounds deluded.

Moving Closer to an Alliance

Milenio reports that a PAN-PRD alliance in the Mexico state governor's race is a done deal for the PAN, with the local PRD needing to approve the pact next week. That's not a foregone conclusion, but should the approval be won (the pro-pact bloc fell a single vote short in their most recent attempt), all eyes will then shift toward next July's election day. Assuming a pact does result, everyone should be a pal and send a box of tissues to AMLO and Enrique Peña Nieto.

Crime Impact Stats

A couple of stories on El Universal's front page last week (though that's no longer the ringing endorsement that it once was, as of two posts ago) offer an idea of the costs of Mexico's insecurity: one, from a private security trade group (and likely inflated) is that businesses lose 36 percent of their utility because of the costs of crime; two, from the same group, crime costs Mexicans on average just under 10,000 pesos a year, or about $800.

As Ever, Peña Nieto in Front

A new poll from BGC has the Mexico state governor out in front of the rest of the PRI hopefuls for the presidency, both in terms of likability and public recognition. The poll (which, to my frustration, assigns a slightly arbitrary point value to their findings rather than just simple percentages) found that Peña Nieto's popularity rating had dipped from 7.4 to 6.8 since last October, which could be a product of the Paulette case, but could also just be a case of media saturation and people getting tired of the same face. Beatriz Paredes is second.

Heard It Before

The US is making noise about attacking money-laundering in Mexico:

The Justice Department is refashioning its unit that prosecutes financial institutions for money laundering and claws back the proceeds of crime, to stanch the flow of money to violent Mexican drug cartels and impound the assets of kleptocrats around the world.

The Asset Forfeiture and Money Laundering Section, part of the department's Criminal Division, has quietly begun hiring a total of 10 prosecutors and lawyers for two groups that will focus on such efforts.

The hiring spree marks an escalation in the department's anti-corruption mission, including U.S. obligations under international pacts, such as the United Nations convention against corruption. The convention requires member states to adopt stringent anti-corruption laws and policies, including tracing and seizing proceeds of crimes committed abroad.

The moves also represent a strategic shift in the department's role in the Mexican drug war, which has claimed more than 22,000 lives since 2006. Law enforcement officials have acknowledged that more resources are needed to target U.S. financial institutions and professional criminals moving drug cartels' money.

"A top priority is the Mexican cartels," said Jennifer Shasky, chief of the section. "We're going after their money aggressively."

I think I got this from Boz's website, but if it was from somewhere else and I am not giving credit where due, apologies. Assuming that this is a sincere venture, one problem with this would seem to be the lack of interest on attacking dirty money by the Mexican government.

Sensationalism

Last week, El Universal had a front page story titled, Entran al país dos mil armas diarias, or Two thousand guns come into the country every day. The info came from a new USA Today story about how vehicle searches at the Mexican border are not resulting in a great deal of contraband being discovered. The USA Today story, in turn, got the info from a Brookings expert. The odd thing is that, from what I can tell from poking around the Brookings website, the estimate is not the product of a new study or anything, but rather is some years-old stat that they came up with at some point and that newspapers use as supporting details in stories about Mexico, just as we saw in this case. The 2,000 per day stat isn't outside of the normal range of estimates, nor is it new, nor was it a major part of a landmark story. So why was there a front-page story in El Universal, arguably Mexico's most respected, even-handed newspaper, about it? Slow news day, I suppose, but the solution to that is not to recycle old non-news.

Northside Corruption

Dirty feds exist on both sides of the border, we are reminded:

A veteran inspector with U.S. Customs and Border Protection was arrested this afternoon at a U.S.-Mexico border crossing on bribery, drug trafficking and human smuggling charges, the U.S. attorney's office in San Diego said.

Lorne Leslie Jones, 46, of Chula Vista, is charged with one count of conspiracy to commit bribery and bringing in illegal aliens for financial gain, according to a criminal complaint unsealed today. He is also charged with aiding drug traffickers smuggle more than 9,300 pounds of marijuana into the country.

Jones, a former marine who became a U.S. Customs inspector in 1994, worked at San Diego-area border crossings in San Ysidro and Otay Mesa, where he’d been assigned as a canine officer since 2005, said assistant U.S. attorney Edward Weiner.

I probably read about a half dozen of these stories a year, give or take, and usually in off-the-beaten-path publications. I wonder how many American federal agents are charged with corruption on a yearly basis; there's got to be a lot more of this going on than the few cases I'm reading about. You'd think a broad rundown of the frequency of and efforts to combat corruption on the US side of the border would be a logical topic for a long piece by one of the many media organizations who've run out of new drug-war stories to tell.

Why the US Is Distrusted in Latin America

This is an ugly story:

U.S. government medical researchers intentionally infected hundreds of people in Guatemala, including institutionalized mental patients, with gonorrhea and syphilis without their knowledge or permission more than 60 years ago.

Many of those infected were encouraged to pass the infection onto others as part of the study.

About one third of those who were infected never got adequate treatment.

Of course, another reason is that irresponsible leaders with ulterior motives benefit from the US being perceived as a monster:

Venezuela VP falsely claims US behind coup attempt in Ecuador. Venezuela is playing politics rather than helping Ecuador's president.