Another President for Legalization

Yesterday, Vicente Fox published on his blog a blunt argument for drug legalization in Mexico, describing it as a way to undercut DTOs' income and operating structure. It could also help future problems in the bud, because the local market in many cities that see rising drug use in the coming generation would would be taken away from the black market. This would make the existence of future Juárez's less likely. How such a move would effect the major organizations like Chapo Guzmán's is a lot harder to predict, and would also depend on how the US reacts.

In any event, this makes three consecutive essentially standard-issue politician, orthodox, centrist or center-right presidents in Mexico who are making noise about legalization. Mexico's elite is turning into one of the hemisphere's most enlightened and open on this issue. Also striking is the fact that the US, whatever other criticisms of its ineffectual drug policy one may feel inclined to make, has been mostly silent on this.

More on the subject from Richard.

Police Agencies

A little more on the plan to do away with the municipal police forces here.

Federal Police Rebellion in Juárez

Milenio is reporting that 300 Federal Police officers stationed in Juárez rebelled against four of their commanders because the lower-level officers suspected them of protecting criminal groups. After demonstrating outside the hotel where the brass was stationed, they forced their way in and found various packages of drugs as well as illegal firearms in the commanders' rooms. Previously, one of the four commanders had allegedly planted drugs on and arranged for the arrest of another agent who had accused them of corruption, which sparked the ten-hour mini-mutiny. The four commanders were removed from their posts and are under investigation.

Update: More on this story here.

The PRD Divide: Deep

Bajo Reserva reports that ahead of the upcoming legislative session, the Chuchos and AMLO's group in the PRD are both shopping different deals with their the PAN and PRI counterparts wherein they would accept lesser positions in the Chamber of Deputies for the PRD as a whole, in exchange for the recall current being sidelined. My memory may be faulty, but I don't remember as much sabotage in the operation sense in AMLO's ascendent phase before the 2006 election. You had the Cárdenas and others conspicuously less than thrilled about AMLO's candidacy, but this open warfare between competing currents of the left and the general lack of unity of purpose that it reflects seems like something that will prevent the left from coming within sniffing distance of the presidency, for as long as it persists.

Bribery Numbers

Genaro García Luna estimates that across the nation, organized crime groups pay police about $1.2 billion a year in bribes, mostly denominated in payments of a few hundred dollars per month. The estimates are based on payout documents discovered by the Federal Police. García Luna went on to say that 60 percent of the nation's police make less than 4,000 pesos (or just over $300) per month, which is of course not an insignificant detail.

Narcobloqueos and the Spread of Tactics

The main highway into Monterrey's airport was blocked by a handful of semi trucks late last night. The trailers, presumably placed on the highway by criminal groups, were removed by authorities after 90 minutes, but red-eye flights were nonetheless postponed until this morning.

It's interesting how two relatively new criminal tactics have remained isolated in their place of origin: blockades in the Northeast (especially Monterrey), and machine-gunning partiers to punish the venue's owners in La Laguna. One of course hopes that neither menace spreads across the nation (especially the latter), but it's alarming to consider that many of the more worrying recent changes to Mexico's criminal landscape --increased use of decapitations, extortion-- were once relatively isolated to certain gangs or regions.

Another Car Bomb

This one was in Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas, yesterday afternoon. Thankfully, it neither killed nor injured anyone, though there was understandably something of a panic, according to reports.

State Department Warnings

In its annual international terrorism report, the State Department warned of the increased use of terrorist tactics by Mexican criminal groups:

Cartels increasingly used military-style terrorist tactics to attack security forces. There was no evidence of ties between Mexican organized crime syndicates and domestic or international terrorist groups. The violence attributed to organized crime groups on the border, however, continued to strain Mexico’s law enforcement capacities, creating potential vulnerabilities that terrorists seeking access to the United States could exploit.

Usually, with regard to Mexico, I'd say the State Department is slightly more shrill than the situation would merit, but here I think that it's one of the few agencies (indeed, it might be the only one thus far) labeling the situation accurately. Though I think the likelihood of international terrorists exploiting vulnerabilities on the northern border is all but nil.

New Group

Nuevo León has announced the creation of an elite, 200-man security group to protect the state from organized crime. Based on the above link, it amounts to little more than the members of the group being endowed with bigger guns and army training. The article says nothing about stricter anti-corruption protections, which would seem to be much more important to the integrity of an elite agency than firepower or military training.

Problems with the Legalization Debate

Yesterday, El Universal ran a note, which accompanied the story about Calderón's call for debate on drug legalization, on the US's enduring rejection of just such a debate, which has been reaffirmed by federal officials from right and left time and time again over the course of various generations. One thing I haven't seen mentioned is that as far as we can tell, there isn't much appetite for legalization among Mexicans themselves. According to a 2009 Mitofsky poll, 77.7 percent are opposed to the measure, while 18 percent are in favor. Those numbers have also been trending away from legalization in recent Mitofsky polls. For legalization advocates, this makes the debate all the more important: a chunk of that 77.7 percent might swing if it saw a forceful case for the relative harmlessness of marijuana, a proposal that would keep it out of the hands of kids, and a sketch of how it would reduce the power of organized crime. But as things stand now, you can't really talk about legalization in a democratic country where four out of five people are opposed to it.

It's also odd how Mexico is presently the inverse of the US on this issue. In the former nation, you have a conservative leader encouraging a reluctant populace to consider legalization, while in the latter, you have an ostensibly liberal government (not on this issue, however) wanting no part of a legalization debate despite the fact that close to half the country wants pot to be legal.

Arrests

Three people allegedly involved in the abduction of four journalists in La Laguna last week have been arrested. Assuming these are indeed the guys responsible for the crime, great news. Nothing would do more to discourage gangsters from kidnapping journalists than the rapid arrest and subsequent conviction of those who do so.

Another Big Bust in Manzanillo

Two hundred pounds of precursor chemicals to be used to manufacture meth were confiscated today in Manzanillo. The chemicals were said to belong to Nacho Coronel. Today's was at least the third huge meth-precursor seizure in Manzanillo this year, and by far the largest.

Everyone a Target for Extortion

A Church spokesman said that different parishes across the country have been subject to extortion by organized crime, and that "every bishop has his record" of payments made and the like. This isn't the first time we've heard of priests being extorted, and it's indicative of a larger move by Mexican criminal gangs toward extortion in the past five years.

For regular Mexicans, this broad swing toward extortion is one of the most pernicious developments of the Calderón era. It's bad enough for big companies and wealthy individuals to have to devote a greater share of their income on personal security because of kidnapping fears, but in many regions extortion is a de facto tax on success (and one that is imposed as regularly and with more authority than the legitimate government taxes), as well as an inhibitor of entrepreneurship. And it's not just big money-cow businesses that suffer, but also for small, family-owned tortillerías and the like.

Positive Economic Info

The Finance Secretariat reported this week that in the second quarter, Mexico's economy grew by 7 percent. While that number is good, the job creation figures remain a bit worrying. In the same lapse, Mexico created 223,000 jobs, and Finance estimates that it will create 600,000 in 2010. This means that not only will the first year of the recovery fail to make up for the lost ground during the crisis, but also that even in a bounce-back year the nation fails to generate anywhere near the 1 million jobs a year it needs to feed the labor market.

Legalization Debate Heats Up

With varying degrees of emphasis, the dailies today are focusing on yesterday's call to debate the legalization of drugs from Felipe Calderón. His speech was tamer than what you'd hope for from a legalization advocate, but from a politician, and a conservative one at that, this marks a significant step in the right direction.

Lots of Killings

In a presentation attended by Felipe Calderón, Cisen pegged the number of organized crime-related killings under Calderón at 28,000, which is slightly higher than the 24,000 mentioned by Arturo Chávez Chávez a few weeks ago. The 24,000 was itself the product of a significant upward revision a few months ago. The agency also reported that there have been just under 1,000 confrontations between criminal groups and government forces across the nation in the Calderón sexenio.

The absence of a standard definition of organized crime remains a bit of an issue for these calculations. Much of these murders were basically street gangs fighting over turf rather than multi-national gangs with the power to threaten the state, a distinction that organized crime obfuscates. That's not to lessen the significance of the 28,000; indeed, it is in some ways more worrying, because reducing the drivers of violence isn't merely a matter of taking down two or five gangs, but rather hundreds, as well as addressing the broader social climate that gives rise to them.

Electoral Shenanigans

A couple of weeks ago, David Agren passed along the rumor that Enrique Peña Nieto was considering changing the date of the upcoming Mexico State election from 2011 to 2012, so as to avoid the possibility that a PAN-PRD alliance would win and in so doing deliver a severe blow to Peña Nieto's presidential ambitions. At the time, it struck me as all-but-impossible: too transparent the gambit, too cowardly the motivation, too cumbersome the process. I still basically feel the same way, but the rumor nonetheless seems to be gaining strength, with Carlos Navarette recently warning Mexicans about Peña Nieto's devious plans.

Back Open

The spanking new US consulate in Juárez, which is where the US handles non-tourist visas applications, is back open today, after closing last Friday thanks to threats of a car bomb attack. The consulate has little in the way of barriers between the street and the front door, which is to say it would seem quite vulnerable to attack. Plus, that space, which is roughly fifty by fifty yards, is always teeming with scores of people, so any competent car-bomb attack would be devastating.

More on Nacho Coronel

Jorge Fernández Menéndez on the death of Nacho Coronel:

The Secretary of National Defense has decided not to make public the operational procedures that allowed them to get to Coronel, but it has emphasized, first, that for a while they had been carrying out a rigorous intelligence tracking of the capo; also, that his localization and the capture attempt (Coronel died while trying to escape from one of them two houses in Zapopan that he used as his base of operations) was the exclusive work of military intelligence: no other federal force, not to mention the states, participated in the operation and nor was there, in this case, no type of collaboration with some type of external, international intelligence.

Unlike other capos, Nacho Coronel didn't utilized strong security units to ensure his safety. He use to be, as he was when the confrontation that ended his life took place, with just one bodyguard and preferred to operate with a low profile, until yesterday at 1:30 p.m., when the military forces prepared his detention: with his death the Sinaloa cartel suffered the strongest blow of the sexenio.

Torreón as Mexican Shorthand for F'ed Up City

After the execution-like slaying of four people in a Coyoacán pizzeria, a Mexico City police chief dismissed suggestions that his city had a series problem with organized crime with the accurate though painful (at least, for me) insight that the nation's capital isn't Torreón.

More on the Laguna: yesterday's Milenio front page, celebrating the rescue of the journalists kidnapped in the Laguna, was the rare illustration of a happy moment in the city's battles with insecurity:

But today things got back to normal, with a jailhouse spree that left four people dead in Gómez Palacio.

Issues that Shouldn't Be Seen as Tests of Strength

If this post aspired to being a comprehensive list, it would be long indeed. In the interest of space, I'll stick to one indisputable example: comprehensive immigration reform, which has thousands of moving parts, scores of interest groups approaching the issue from very different points of view, and necessarily entails a number of painful and imperfect compromises. Nonetheless, Sarah Palin says that the only think preventing a solution is the lack of a president with "cojones".

Post Mortem

Sam Kelly has the details on Diego Maradona's removal from the Argentine national team. One hopes that rumors of his being offered the Mexico job are just rumors; hiring the disappointing outgoing coach of a more prestigious national team promises to be a rerun of the Eriksson era. Although Maradona has the advantage of speaking Spanish fluently and without a foreign accent, which a recent study suggests was one of Eriksson's most insuperable obstacles.

Good News from Torreón, More Federal Government Targeting of Sinaloa

Three of the four journalists kidnapped in Torreón last week were rescued by the Federal Police. (The other had already been released.) In the press conference following the rescue, Genaro García Luna blamed the kidnappings on Chapo Guzmán, which seems a more verbal shot across the capo's bow than is typical from the federal government. This follows not only the death of Nacho Coronel, but the army's subsequent killing of his nephew and would-be successor. This all may be coincidence, but it does seem as there is a more aggressive push to get tough on Sinaloa figures in the past week. Now I just need to see a quote from Edgardo Buscaglia explaining why it's all a sham.