Twenty Years

Cafe Tacuba has been at it for twenty years now. To celebrate this, they will go on a three-continent tour. To further celebrate this (and the upcoming Spring break), we will listen to "Alármala de Tos".

Lightweights

Speaking of altered faces (last post), I expect to see some this Saturday on Golden Boy's Lightweight Lightning card. Having eight lightweight contenders on one card is a cool concept, and aside from that, there are lots of good matchups with exciting, offensive fighters. The best matchup is Antonio Pitalua and Edwin Valero, two huge punchers. Valero has knocked out every fighter he's ever faced, the vast majority in the first round. That's quite a testament to his pop, but it's a double-edged sword: he's only got about fifty rounds under his belt, many of them incomplete and most of them against weak opposition. For all his power, he also has a porous defense and rather one-dimensional, Daniel Ponce de León-esque offense. Pitalua, on the other hand, can also crack (40 KOs in 46 wins), but has four times as many rounds on his resumé, and more experience having his bell rung by world-class pros (Artur Grigorian and José Armando Santa Cruz) than Valero. There aren't too many endings that would surprise me in this one (except for a boring distance fight), but I'm going with a mid-round knockout by Pitalua.

To round out the card, I also like Escobedo over Hernéndez, Katsidis over Chavez, and Diaz over Reyes, all by decision. Elsewhere, I think Tim Bradley's aggression will get him the nod over Kendell Holt, who, for all his athleticism, doesn't bring the fight to his opponent enough. I also like Librado Andrade to take a decision from Vitali Tsypko, and Alexander Povetkin to knock Jason Estrada out in the second half of their ten-rounder.

Altered Face

The president of the Mexican Council on Plastic Surgery says that Vicente Carrillo Leyva has had his face surgically altered. Given that Carrillo's father Amado famously died (or so they say) on the operating table during plastic surgery, it's odd that his son would submit himself to the same procedure. I imagine that lots of conspiracy-minded Mexicans will be thinking along the same lines, and will take this as a sign that Amado Carrillo lives on.

It's Through

The much debated asset seizure law known as the Federal Law of Extinction of Dominion was passed yesterday in the Mexican Senate, by a vote of 87-0. It now goes before the Chamber of Deputies.

Update: This Milenio summary paints a pretty vivid picture of the fighting (not an entirely figurative usage of the word, I might add) that led up to the bill's passage. According to the PRI, the PAN wanted to surreptitiously delay the passage of the bill until after Semana Santa so as to have a few more days to blame the PRI for dilly-dallying. Now that's a Machavellian ploy!

Firing Back

According to Manlio Fabio Beltrones, the PAN "supposedly" won the elections in 2006. The "supposedly", of course, refers to the fraud alleged by the pejistas. One of the big reasons that belief in a fraud was never widespread was the early recognition of Calderón as the winner by PRI heavyweights (of course the absence of any evidence supporting the fraud theory didn't hurt), so this comes across a bit like a retroactive retraction of support.

More directly, Beltrones' comments are a response to the negative campaign from the PAN, which has had great success in linking the PRI to drug traffickers. I don't think Beltrones remark has much potential as a broader narrative; it's an issue that has been settled in the mind of most Mexicans' for two years. For those who are still unsure of the 2006 elections, well they weren't going to vote for the PAN in any case. Who switches their vote to the PRI because Beltrones is casting doubt on Calderón's victory? In contrast, linking the PRI to the drug traffickers offers an indication of how the party would govern once in power, and softens its support among the middle class and independent voters whose defection from the PAN is largely responsible for the PRI's lead in the polls.

Another Day, Another Mainstream Columnist Favors Legalization

On April 2nd, it's Joe Klein.

Money Talks

Via Boz, the Financial Times is reporting that Congress is set to restore the cuts to the Mérida Initiative.

Revisiting the Past. Or, The More Things Change...

José Antonio Crespo wrote a sharp column last Friday poking holes in the notion that we are on the verge of a truly new age in Mexican-American relations. There's too much to post it all, but read if you speak Spanish. Here's a taste:

The attorney general of the republic affirms, emphatically: "We are not losing the struggle against crime. There are people that have tied carrying out their duty. That's something that hurts us, but we are capable of overcoming this and it makes us fight with more dedication against the impunity." No, this didn't come from Eduardo Medina-Mora, but rather Jorge Madrazo, just before the presidential election of 2000 (5-3-00). For his part, the special prosecutor for drug crimes, Mariano Herrán Salvatti (presently detained for criminal association, among other charges), affirmed: "The fight against drug trafficking is being won. There is no truce." (5-30-00) Which is to say, the discourse in regard to drug trafficking hasn't changed a great deal in these years of panista government. Nor has the controversy over the topic with the United States. Before the present objections made and alarm shown from our neighbor to the north in regard to our war against organized crime, the government of Felipe Calderón responds, in essence, that we are simply the diving board for the enormous American pool. That's the same thing Gustavo Díaz Ordaz said four decades ago. We're going in circles.

It has been insisted recently, in an almost festive tone, that before the unprecedented tension between both nations, the response from Washington breaks a paradigm. That's not exactly true. It's that our memory is short. Washington repeats, with different shades, an old scheme: first pressure our government, then congratulate it for its effort, later the objection that the situation has gone out of control, and, finally, soften its rhetoric and offer cooperation, aside from admitting a part of the responsibility (this last one, with greater emphasis than before). Let's remember what was said at the cusp of governmental change, still under a priista government: the Los Angeles Times reported, "in the last three years, 262 Mexican organizations dedicated to drug trafficking have been detected in the Los Angeles area." (5-29-00) For its part, The Washington Times assured that President Zedillo was the owner of some billions of dollars laundered by narco-bankers. And, on the program 60 Minutes, an ex Customs Agent accused the Mexican Secretary of Defense, General Enrique Cervantes, of links with drug trafficking. (4-16-00) That truly seemed like a "campaign against Mexico," compared to which Forbes' is merely a tickle.

Exactly! I didn't know that bit about Zedillo. Indeed, I'd never heard or read anything suggesting that he personally was not scrupulous. I imagine it's been disproved since then.

Pascual's Not Even In, and He's Out Already?

Via TNR, Ben Smith wonders if Chris Dodd if being the ambassador of Mexico would be a significant enough enticement to convince him not to run for another term in the Senate. Given the fact that Carlos Pascual was just announced as the next ambassador to Mexico a few days ago, I imagine that is just a reflection of Dodd's well known interest in Latin America and Smith's idle wondering, rather than something someone official suggested to him. Whatever the case, it doesn't speak well for Mexico that, even with all the attention on the nation in recent weeks, the top diplomatic post in Mexico City is seen as nothing more than a bargaining chip to lure an old lion to pasture, rather than an important position in and of itself.

Going, Going...

Mexican media sources are reporting that Sven-Goran Eriksson is on his way out, and the decision will be formalized April 27th, when the Owners Council that serves as an advisory board for the national team meets. The only question is who the replacement will be: Javier Aguirre, or José Manuel de la Torre. Seeing as the hour is getting late vis-á-vis the World Cup qualification, I think they have to go with the guy who's been there before and can hit the ground running: Aguirre.

Less Approving

Teflon Felipe's approval appears to be slipping. According to polling published today in El Universal, 54 percent of Mexicans approve of his tenure, compared to 57 percent last November, and 66 percent in February of 2008. Oddly, however, the number of citizens who disapprove of Calderón's administrate dropped significantly (11 points) as well. Perhaps economic uncertainty causing uncertain judgments as well. Or, more likely, it's because El Universal just changed pollsters. Whatever the case, I'll be interested to see Mitofski and the rest of the polls in the next couple of weeks.

(Graphic courtesy of El Universal.)

Another Capo's Son Named Vicente Goes Down

A couple of week's ago it was Vicente Zambada, son of Ismael, today it is Vicente Carrillo, son of the late Amado and nephew of the Juárez boss also named Vicente Carrillo. After he was arrested in Mexico City, he was presented to the media looking like a typical 32-year-old Mexican hipster, with an Abercrombie shirt and thick-framed black glasses.

The Post Tackles the Mexico Army

It's a long, even-handed piece from William Booth and Steve Fainaru. Most of the Mexicans quoted, regardless of their closeness or lack thereof to Calderón, are reluctantly in favor of the use of the army, which squares pretty well with my perception of public opinion here in Torreón. As they tend to, the portions quoting DEA officials jumped out at me:

Anthony P. Placido, chief of intelligence for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, called Calderón's decision to use the military an "extraordinarily courageous step."

"This was not a traditional law enforcement problem that could be solved using traditional tools," Placido said in an interview in Washington. "It had gotten away from them. If the D.C. police were to engage in an operation against these criminal adversaries, and they faced bands of 30 to 50 of these criminals, and they were all carrying AK-47s and grenades and the bodies were dropping at the rate they're dropping, I suspect you might have to call in the National Guard. I don't think it is drastically different from what we would do if faced with a similar situation."

This really misunderstands the reasons for the traffickers' success, as well as the advantages the army can bring to bear. It's not all (or even predominantly) about firepower. The idea that a drug gang can take down a helicopter is alarming, but such capabilities are tangential to a gang's success; they rely on corruption, bribery, intimidation, and official protection. The army is a better fit for the war on drugs not because they have bigger guns (although this helps), but because they are more isolated and less susceptible to bribes from drug traffickers. If you could magically replace the AFI with a Mexican FBI, you'd do it an instant, despite the fact that the FBI isn't a outfitted like an infantry battalion and the AFI often is. Why? Because it's a cleaner agency.

Later:

Placido, the DEA intelligence chief, said he believes Calderón "is way past the point of no return. . . . This is my personal opinion, but I think he's all in. He has to fight to save himself, his party and his country."

This sounds like the way a hard-boiled drug warrior would speak in a movie, but it worries me that such is the assessment of a high-ranking DEA official in real life. What does that even mean? Calderón can't ease up his use of the army because if he did the narcos would kill him, eradicate the PAN, and take over the country? That's pretty silly.

Reaction to the Loan

The Excélsior headline on the front page says the credit line is "just in case." According to the online poll at Imagen, almost two thirds of Mexicans are confident that this will help the government overcome the crisis, which is a strikingly optimistic number.

For some more expert analysis, here's Rogelio Ramírez de la O writing yesterday (before the IMF credit extension was official):

If the American economy recovers starting in the second semester of 2009, as many think it will, then the productive sector [in Mexico] can begin to bounce back before it is too late. This is the implicit gamble that the government is taking.

If, in contrast, the American crisis extends beyond 2009, around the middle of 2010 the economy would be in an unsustainable situation, but the government will have already spent all of its reserves and taken out loans to sustain the peso artificially. The crisis in the productive sector and in the population would be much deeper and the official gamble will have been incorrect.

Using today the international reserves and external loans without the support of the productive sector will reduce the space for maneuvering the country in near future. Not listing to the warnings that the private sector offers everyday about the deterioration of the productive base and the absence of public infrastructure spending is a mistake.

What?!, and Other Notes on Tonight's Action

Diego Maradona had said that the Argentine side's performance against Venezuela was perfect on Sunday. Tonight? Not only did Argentina lose, but they lost 6-1. Not only did they lose 6-1, but they lost 6-1 to Bolivia. How?

Less of a head-scratcher and far more enjoyable was Jozy Altidore's hat-trick against Trinidad and Tobago. That guy's the man. He is now the youngest American to ever net three in international competition. 

Lastly, could we be watching Sven-Goran's last game at the helm of el Tri? They're down 2-0 at the half in a game in which a loss is really going to complicate things.

Hollywood, Mexicans, and Mexico

Three parts to this post. First, there was going to be a movie that was to star Eva Mendes called The Queen of the South, based on the novel La Reina del Sur, which is about a Mexican woman who conquers the world of drug trafficking in Spain. That movie has been canceled, evidently because of threats made on the movie's director by drug traffickers. I've not read the book, but it seems odd to me that the criminal groups would worry a great deal about fiction. The movie promised an unusual mix of talent; Ben Kingsley and Josh Hartnett would have been joining Mendes on screen.

Second, this passage at the end of Jody Rosen's review of Prince's new album is worth a laugh:

In the middle of MPLSound is "Valentina," a deliciously perverse Princely come-on. The song is a lustful ode to Salma Hayek—addressed to the actress' 18-month-old daughter. Prince sings: "Hey Valentina tell your mama/ She should give me a call/ When she get tired of runnin'/ After you down the hall/ And she's all worn out/ From those late-night feedings." On the off chance that the song fails to produce the desired effect, Prince includes an insurance pickup line, figuring that the infant Valentina has access to all of Hollywood's A-list Latinas. "If Penélope wants to Cruz," he sings, "there ain't no way that we ain't gon' dance."

Lastly, Justin Timberlake has his own tequila. It's called 901, which doubles as the Memphis area code and the precise time we start craving a tequila shot, at least according to his publicist. I'd have preferred it to be called "Junk in the Box," or something along those lines.

New Revenue Source

Excélsior reports that over the past two years, the Zetas earned tens of millions of dollars (or 1.2 billion pesos) stealing gas from Pemex, and then reselling it in the States.

Pushback from the Mexican Pols

The mayor of Rosarito objects to the coverage of Mexico's insecurity in the American media:

We welcome and invite serious and analytical coverage of this struggle. Such coverage can be of significant help to both countries, which have much at stake.

What we don’t welcome is inaccurate, sensationalized, unbalanced and unfair coverage, which provides no insight but only promotes fear and misunderstanding. There has been far too much of this and it continues largely unabated.

Some media reports are simply biased and inaccurate. They are from individuals or media outlets that have an agenda against Mexico and will publish anything to promote it, whether or not it is true.

Good Credit

Agustín Carstens has announced that Mexico will receive a line of credit from the IMF worth about $47 billion. The goal is to lower interest rates and stablize the currency here. Bloomberg says that this is more than was expected, and markets are surging in response. Mexico's independence from international financial organization in comparison to other Latin American nations has long been a source of pride (no one talks about the loans in 1995 without mentioning in the next breath that they were paid back ahead of time), so I'll be interested to see the various takes on this.

Refining

Macario Schettino explains his skepticism of the refinery to be built in Mexico, and offers a creative alternative:

Building a refinery in Mexico makes sense to reduce imports, but only if the private sector makes that refinery. If that doesn't happen, it would be better not to build it, because Pemex is going to divert resources from its real business, which is removing oil [from the Earth], to a bad business, which is refining. That's why, when the reform failed, it was preferable to not build a refinery.

Furthermore, it would be better to search for some refinery in the world that is underused and buy it, totally or partially, so as to avoid the construction costs and reduce our dollar problem. Once we imported gas made at a Pemex refinery, even if it was outside of the country, the dollars we require would be only a small fraction of what we pay today. And with the global economic crisis, finding a good deal on the world petroleum market is assured.

But instead of doing that, which would be economically reasonable, we're going to build a refinery in Mexico, which will be ready, if we're lucky, inside of six years with an investment of 10 billion dollars. They say it will be less time and less money, but every architect also says that when they remodel a house, and they are always wrong.

[Break]

I don't mean to say that it makes no sense to build the refinery, because whatever the case we will consume what it produces, but we need to be clear that this won't be the business of the century. It won't be very important, not economically, nor financially, not even in terms of energy.

The PRI's Slide

Two takes on the polls that show the PRI dropping, starting with Leo Zuckermann, who thinks that the decline of the PRI in the polls is due to the PAN's aggressive negativity:

I would dare to speculate that the negative campaign from the PAN against the PRI is working. It would be that a segment of the population started to doubt its vote for the PRI. The panistas, above all in the voice of their national leader, Germán Martínez, have cornered the priistas. They have created a wave of news where, over the internet, with repetition in national news organizations, they ask the PRI what side it's on in the war against organized crime. On the president's or who else's? The "else" meaning the drug traffickers. If the PRI answers the president, then it merely scores points for the PAN. And of course for obvious reasons they can't say that they're on the side of the criminals.

Ricardo Raphael wonders if the party's decline is because the PRI never poll as well with more people voting/responding:

A chain from which the PRI has never managed to escape would seem to be crystalizing once more: while this party tends to win elections in which few people participate, they are defeated when the number of voters grows.

The poll from Berúmen and Associates seems to confirm this: when 6 percent of those polled didn't want to offer information reasoning the vote was secret, the PRI obtained 40 percent of the voting preferences. In contrast, once more people involved themselves in the exercise, the PRI lost a fourth of the voting intention that it enjoyed before.

Of the two explanations, I think Zuckermann's is more likely the main cause.

Krauze Denies State Failure

Here's another mini-interview on TNR. The indignant response to the failed-state query was well suited to the silliness of the idea: he called it an "outrageous caricature." It made me want to yell as though I were watching a boxing match: "Give 'em hell, Quique!" "Show 'em what's up, Doctor!"

Tracking Trust

Despite the opinion-maker's overwhelmingly positive reaction to Hillary's stay in Mexico, a strong undercurrent of mistrust among regular Mexicans persists. Fifty-three percent of the respondents to a Beltrán-Excélsior poll said that Clinton's visit was the same as any a foreign secretary would make, and 60 said that they don't believe her affirmation that Mexico is among the most important nations in the world for the US. Only 37 percent believed that the attitude of the Obama government toward Mexico was sincere, while 33 said it was false. For 59 percent of Mexicans, the relationship between the two nations is the same as always, regardless of Obama's election.